These last few weeks have seen many changing scenarios. The oil price is seemingly going down, although one must relate to the oil price as we buy it, and link it further to the US dollar exchange rate, that is now climbing. The mechanism of a higher oil price with a lower dollar rate is always there, and is there also when the oil price goes down and the dollar rises.

We look forward to get a stabilised situation after the American elections are held in 10 days’ time, as this wave may settle. When the issue is settled, one can programme for the medium and long-term situations. When one plans, one needs a forecast. When that forecast is so liquid, then figures drawn up change constantly, unless you wish to draft in a risk element. And here we are with all the diverse scenarios and proposals by the government on the water and electricity rates. What was valid some four weeks ago, seems history today.

The first proposals are to be revised and fine-tuned to reflect the reality of today. Various proposals and discussions have taken place, and hopefully a balanced situation will emerge shortly. The forward buying oil exercise, so successful in summer, could start working against the hedging now. The hedging exercise has always been a game similar to that of a casino, where you place your bet on the red or black, and have 50 per cent chance of winning. So is this exercise. As nobody knows the future for certain, but can only forecast on different scenarios, then this blessed hedging is just a gamble. Hopefully one gets it right.

Such are the ups and downs of these days that predicting anything is impossible. Making it worse is the financial crisis that incredibly led from the financial problems related to home loans in the United States to a worldwide collapse. Iceland, as a nation, became bankrupt. Other nations bemoan the fact that they are not under the protection of the eurozone, and are moving faster to accede to the eurozone. Other banks and financial institutions have felt the pinch, as inter-banking lending has stopped. Thus, the domino effect on lending, and the crisis.

What will happen is anybody’s guess and if it’s going to get better, or worse, and when, nobody can tell. We do not know if trade orders can and will suffer, or if tourism will slow down. If, hopefully, as a small nation, we can take up the cue, and in our smallness react to such situations fast, we might eventually benefit too. In tourism, when we had the Gulf Wars and the wars in Yugoslavia, Malta ended up benefiting from the situation. We are in the price bracket of a wider market of tourists who look for a holiday closer to home and within the eurozone. We can also offer a cheaper holiday.

I augur that this will happen again, but we must react quickly in order to attract clients who might have gone long haul. This will help the tourism industry grow.

Soon the budget debate will start. This financial crisis, the overspending on the oil prices will have an effect on this year’s budget. Nobody can just cancel out what was paid, ignore the checks and balances, and still produce a budget that is a healthy one for all. It is also a fact that government revenues have been steady, so, the financial exercise may prove to be good too.

We wait and see as developments unfold.

Robert Arrigo is a Nationalist MP