Irish voters yesterday turned out to vote in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and by this afternoon, Europe should know the verdict.

The Lisbon Treaty comes in the wake of the failed attempt to introduce a European Constitution in 2005 when it was thrown out by the French and the Dutch. It is described as an attempt to streamline the EU’s institutions to make them more efficient and for the swollen 27-strong bloc to function better.

Ireland held a referendum in 2008, but it was turned down by a seven per cent margin of voters, with many Irish demanding legal guarantees on issues which voters deemed to be of concern. They got the guarantees and a Yes seems optimistic as the public do not want to risk further turmoil in view of the fact that Ireland has been hit so hard by the world recession. While the government is hugely unpopular, many voters seem to want the Lisbon issue sorted out and will hang on till the next general election to show their anger.

If any of the EU states do not ratify or endorse the treaty, then it could truly be scuppered once and for all. In fact, Ireland is the only EU state to hold a referendum on the matter and this because of an Irish Supreme Court ruling in 1987, saying that any major amendment to an EU treaty entails an amendment to the Irish constitution.

Twenty-four other states have ratified the treaty, Malta included. But if anyone thinks that Ireland is the last hurdle, they have another thing coming.

The Czech Republic is the next great hurdle, but there is an even bigger obstacle to come – Poland.

The Czech lower house of parliament approved the treaty on in February and the (Senate) followed suit in May. But Czech President Vaclav Klaus, a renowned Eurosceptic, is against the treaty and has not yet signed it. In the meantime, a group of senators has deemed that the treaty is unconstitutional and are set to challenge it in the highest court. The President has already gone on record saying that he will not sign the treaty until the court’s verdict is pronounced. In other words, if the court rules against, the deal is off.

At least these two states have valid reasons for prolonging the process. Poland, however, is an entirely different kettle of fish. Rest assured, Poland will ratify the treaty. But at what cost?

Polish President Lech Kaczynski has refused to sign the treaty for the time being, calling it “pointless”, adding that he is waiting for the Irish question to be resolved.

Knowing the fiery Polish President’s way of thinking, he will attempt to emulate Ireland in seeking ‘concessions’. We are sure that the Polish President, if he is the last man standing, will attempt to use leverage in the fact that he will have all the bargaining chips. If this treaty does not go through, then what way forward?

The Polish have used strong-arm tactics before and one is sure that this will again be the case. After all, Europe failed in introducing a Constitution to start afresh. To skirt around it, they have disguised it as an amendment to an existing treaty.

Surely, with matters as they stand, the EU must bolster its credibility and must get the treaty pushed through. One can only wonder what the Poles have up their sleeves. We are sure that it will not be an easy ride, even if the Irish do vote Yes, as is expected.Irish voters yesterday turned out to vote in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and by this afternoon, Europe should know the verdict.

The Lisbon Treaty comes in the wake of the failed attempt to introduce a European Constitution in 2005 when it was thrown out by the French and the Dutch. It is described as an attempt to streamline the EU’s institutions to make them more efficient and for the swollen 27-strong bloc to function better.

Ireland held a referendum in 2008, but it was turned down by a seven per cent margin of voters, with many Irish demanding legal guarantees on issues which voters deemed to be of concern. They got the guarantees and a Yes seems optimistic as the public do not want to risk further turmoil in view of the fact that Ireland has been hit so hard by the world recession. While the government is hugely unpopular, many voters seem to want the Lisbon issue sorted out and will hang on till the next general election to show their anger.

If any of the EU states do not ratify or endorse the treaty, then it could truly be scuppered once and for all. In fact, Ireland is the only EU state to hold a referendum on the matter and this because of an Irish Supreme Court ruling in 1987, saying that any major amendment to an EU treaty entails an amendment to the Irish constitution.

Twenty-four other states have ratified the treaty, Malta included. But if anyone thinks that Ireland is the last hurdle, they have another thing coming.

The Czech Republic is the next great hurdle, but there is an even bigger obstacle to come – Poland.

The Czech lower house of parliament approved the treaty on in February and the (Senate) followed suit in May. But Czech President Vaclav Klaus, a renowned Eurosceptic, is against the treaty and has not yet signed it. In the meantime, a group of senators has deemed that the treaty is unconstitutional and are set to challenge it in the highest court. The President has already gone on record saying that he will not sign the treaty until the court’s verdict is pronounced. In other words, if the court rules against, the deal is off.

At least these two states have valid reasons for prolonging the process. Poland, however, is an entirely different kettle of fish. Rest assured, Poland will ratify the treaty. But at what cost?

Polish President Lech Kaczynski has refused to sign the treaty for the time being, calling it “pointless”, adding that he is waiting for the Irish question to be resolved.

Knowing the fiery Polish President’s way of thinking, he will attempt to emulate Ireland in seeking ‘concessions’. We are sure that the Polish President, if he is the last man standing, will attempt to use leverage in the fact that he will have all the bargaining chips. If this treaty does not go through, then what way forward?

The Polish have used strong-arm tactics before and one is sure that this will again be the case. After all, Europe failed in introducing a Constitution to start afresh. To skirt around it, they have disguised it as an amendment to an existing treaty.

Surely, with matters as they stand, the EU must bolster its credibility and must get the treaty pushed through. One can only wonder what the Poles have up their sleeves. We are sure that it will not be an easy ride, even if the Irish do vote Yes, as is expected.