The political agenda is now dominated by the contents of the budget, a budget that is living in the shadows of the water and electricity tariffs. Although, for a change, the utilities have been mentioned in the Finance Minister's speech, economists and politicians will only be able to gauge the impact of the so-called tariff “adjustments” on the general economy and their effect on the overall substance of the budget proposals when the regulator decides to approve the new rates.

As a matter of fact, only the government and the Resources Authority know what the adjustments consist of. The government has worked them out and the regulator is considering them. So the uncertainty is great. To the consumer – both families and businesses – the concern for the adjustments to the tariffs is far greater than any appreciation of the impact of the incentives and capital projects announced in the budget. Indeed, while one still has to see whether the proposed budgetary incentives will see the light of day sometime in 2010, the tariffs, once approved, will have to be paid immediately. Their impact is closer to home than anything else announced in the budget.

I have noted that some constituted bodies have received the budget with glee. Others have adopted a guarded approach. One particular body, the MEA, did not bat an eyelid in expressing its worries. Of course its members are carrying the brunt of the government's inadequacy in dealing with the spiralling cost of living, which has saddled them with a COLA increase of more than e5 weekly. And on top of that, they still have to deal with another probable hike in the utility rates, which will have to come about not only because of the international prices of oil, which admittedly have been on the rise, but also because of the energy corporation's inefficiencies.

With hindsight we have been here before. Midway next year there will be a chorus of disapproval on the handling of the economy. No surprise that the constituted bodies are all calling on the government to sit down with them to discuss a strategy for the implementation of the budget proposals.

They simply don't trust the Finance Minister. Why?

The spin-offs of most of the capital projects announced have been regurgitated from previous budgets and pre-budget documents. You will be surprised that the drafters of the budget speech indulged in a cut and paste exercise. They can fool the ordinary man in the street for a while but not forever. But to the astute eye of political observers, trade unionists, employers and business associations and economists the drafters have been caught out again red-handed. I can imagine the Leader of the Opposition making a meal out of them this evening at Parliament.

Many of the positives proposed are a monument to colossal government failure as they have not been implemented time and time again, although repeatedly promised. Still the government has the effrontery to re-propose them and to make over-optimistic projections of economic growth, increased revenues and of other strategic goodies.

The Finance Minister's credibility is now very much at stake. He might have run away with murder with Budget 2009. But for Budget 2010 his credibility and tenure of office will be hanging on a fine line in the months to come.

DR GAVIN GULIA LL.D., M.P.

(Dr Gulia is the Opposition's Main Spokesman on the Economy and the Self-Employed)