The coming weeks will tell us a lot about Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi.

He has already made one important decision, but that will have to lead to a number of others as a direct consequence.

Last November, he nominated Social Policy Minister John Dalli as Malta’s European Union Commissioner. If, as expected, Mr Dalli passes the test he will sit for at the European Parliament on 14 January, he will have to resign both as minister and as MP.

This will push Dr Gonzi into making other choices. The much-awaited and long-anticipated Cabinet reorganisation must take place if and when Mr Dalli takes up his role in Brussels. Nearly two years into the government’s term, it is also the time to see what has not worked well and what to do to improve the situation.

There is one thing Dr Gonzi will have to wait for before he makes up his mind – and this is the casual election that will take place once Mr Dalli moves out of the House of Representatives. On this matter, Dr Gonzi has little control – in the sense that he must wait and see who will be sitting in Mr Dalli’s stead.

The biggest question remains whether Louis Galea, currently Speaker of the House, will submit his nomination for the casual election. This and his possible re-election will have an influence on what Dr Gonzi will decide. If Dr Galea remains out of it, then the PN will have a new MP, one from Robert Musumeci and Peter Micallef.

For sure, Mr Dalli will have to be replaced in the Cabinet. Dr Gonzi has said that the changes to the current set-up will be minimal, but this ranges from one direct replacement to a number of moves aimed to strengthen the present team.

It is believed that Dr Gonzi will take up the opportunity to make other appointments in the Cabinet, mostly to give some help to ministers who have big portfolios and at the same time appease some moaning backbenchers.

Let’s face it. Dr Gonzi’s detractors will criticise him whatever he does.

If he goes for the minimal changes that he said he would do, he will be told that he missed a great chance to reorganise his Cabinet. He will be described as being arrogant and out of touch with reality, that he was unable to read the signs of the times and that he is too stubborn to admit his mistakes.

If, on the other hand, he goes for a significant renewal of his Cabinet he will be told that he is making up for his mistakes and that he is trying to accommodate too many people to keep them happy and reduce the chances that they create more internal problems than they have already done.

Still, it must be remembered that a ministerial position – and even a role as parliamentary secretary – is delicate and only competent people should be given such posts. Having personal ambition and the stomping of feet does not exactly mean that people are competent to carry out such jobs.

In making up his mind, Dr Gonzi must put everything in the balance. The government’s one-seat majority in Parliament does not allow him too much room in which to manoeuvre. Yet Dr Gonzi’s experience tells him that he must not allow sentiment to overcome rationality. He cannot afford to create more problems to himself and to the government.