The reality of what happens if we ignore weaknesses and deficiencies in the Eurozone has been brutally exposed by the crisis in Greece. Faced with the mounting crisis and the potential spill-over effect of Greece's plight on other Eurozone countries, and particularly the likes of Spain, Portugal and Italy, EU leaders last month offered a token promise that, if necessary, they were ready to shore up Greece's finances. In the same breath, voices in Germany were strongly objecting to the notion of propping up a profligate country to help it mend its ways. This along with results showing that the Eurozone's economic powerhouse, Germany, had very weak economic performances in the last quarter of 2009 has already seen the euro weaken significantly against the dollar.
The eurozone is paying the price for structural weaknesses that have existed for a decade. Ultimately, there are few options open to Greece: guarantees from its fellow EU Member States alongside further domestic austerity measures; a bail-out and stiff austerity package courtesy of the IMF, or default. Faced with such challenging times, we must identify weaknesses in the eurozone and address them with vigour. As we have learnt from Greece, the alternatives are bleak.
The question of weaknesses in the eurozone was also addressed in a debate in the European Parliament at its last Strasbourg session. In my speech, I referred to key pre-requisites that would help us avert future economic crises affecting either an individual Member State or the entire eurozone. Firstly, special attention needs to be given to the discontinuation of cash-flow accounting by any EU Member State.
Secondly, we definitely need a strong surveillance function for the entire eurozone economy although, of course, a balance has to be found. Nobody wants the Commission to be taking on the role of 'big brother' in the statistical field, doing the job that Member States should be doing themselves, but we cannot take such a lax approach to malpractice in statistical governance.
Above all, the credibility of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) has been damaged by the lack of good statistical governance and genuinely independent statistical institutions in many Member States. We know of two serious breakdowns in statistical governance in Greece, but there are doubtless others that have yet to be discovered. Public finances and their reporting must be audited according to common EU-approved standards, because if we cannot trust the integrity of economic statistics then the SGP rules on deficits and government debt are rendered completely meaningless.
Similarly, we need independent oversight to ensure that national governments' economic forecasts are credible. There are a number of examples in the EU, where member states have produced highly optimistic forecasts which have, in turn, led to misleading projections on the state of public finances.
We could increase transparency further by publishing the results of economic 'stress tests' by the EU in every member state. Stress tests are projections of alternative economic scenarios resulting from internal or external shocks to a particular economy. This would give everyone pre-warning about exposure to an economic crisis and encourage member states to make the necessary adjustments.
Above all, measures that would increase the transparency and integrity of statistical governances and economic forecasting would have a dual effect - it would calm the nerves of markets and reduce speculation attacks, and it would discourage eurozone countries from thinking that financial engineering and fiscal one-offs can allow them to avoid making the real adjustments needed to secure their economic future.
The financial crisis in Greece should be a wake-up call for us. All EU countries should recognise that recovery ultimately comes from credible and sustainable spending programmes with the aid of sound economic projections and statistical governance. In short it comes from good economic management. It does not come from internal economic shocks given in a panic in response to avoidable crises.
Professor Scicluna is a Labour MEP
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