The last three weeks saw a string of events and warnings that suggested Europe was under a renewed threat from global jihadist terrorism. Some reports even indicated al Qaeda was planning Mumbai-style armed rampages in several West European cities. But just how credible is this threat, and what are the implications for European security?

A tip-off

Most sources seem to agree that the first pointer to a major plot in Europe came from a German national captured in Kabul in July called Ahmed Sidiqi. He told interrogators of plans to attack a number of targets in Europe. Sidiqi, who may have links to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was a member of an 11-man cell from Hamburg that had trained in camps in North Waziristan. According to CNN, Sidiqi came under the command of a Mauritanian member of al Qaeda’s External Operations Committee (which plans attacks in the West) known as Younis al-Mauretani. Sidiqi revealed that Mauretani planned to travel to Europe with two other Germans to prepare attacks modelled on the November 2008 Mumbai assault.

Meanwhile, a Briton, Abdul Jabbar, had travelled to North Waziristan in 2009 for terrorist training under the guidance of a Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) commander close to al Qaeda. Jabbar was reportedly in the process of planning attacks against European targets and setting up a network in the UK called the “Islamic Army of Great Britain”.

Both Mauretani and Jabbar died in a US missile strike in Pakistan on 8 September. It seems that they met at a summit of some 300 militants from various al Qaeda factions and affiliates that had come together to plan future terrorist operations, including in Europe.

A wider conspiracy

A third figure reportedly killed that day was Yemeni terrorist Fahd Mohammad Ahmed al-Quso. He had close links with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and was an important conduit between al Qaeda in Pakistan and its Yemen-based franchise.

It is unclear what role al-Quso may have had in any European plot. But given his status, his presence at the meeting seems to indicate that al Qaeda supported it and may indicate a continued role in ordering and planning attacks in the West.

Some recent reports quote intelligence officials supporting this assessment. They claim that Osama bin Laden remains directly involved, and that he issued a ‘directive’ to affiliates and partners via couriers several months earlier stating a desire to see a ‘Mumbai-style attack’ in the United Kingdom, Germany or France.

Plot or not

Quite how far along any plot may have progressed is unclear. Several European intelligence sources told the media that the plot was embryonic. But since 8 September, indications of a threat to Europe has continued to emerge.

French police arrested 12 people on terrorism charges, seizing a collection of firearms. On 3 October, US drones struck again in Pakistan killing eight suspected terrorists, four of whom were German nationals.

Yet despite these events and travel warnings, neither the British, German nor the French governments have raised national terrorism threat levels. This suggests none believe there was, or is, an imminent threat of attack.

A diversifying threat

While the latest plot may have been in its early stages, it seems that al Qaeda and its affiliates remain intent on mounting attacks in Europe. Pakistani diplomats have dismissed the credibility of stories that these plans are being hatched in their country, but a senior Pakistani intelligence officer confirmed to the media that there are “several dozen people” with European citizenship operating in Pakistan’s tribal areas. Media reports suggest that as many as 20 British-born jihadists are currently training at militant training camps there.

The director general of MI5 recently said plots that trace back to al Qaeda in the tribal areas of Pakistan have dropped from around 75 per cent two or three years ago, to around 50 per cent now. He attributes that to pressure exerted on the al Qaeda leadership, but also increased activity in Somali and Yemen.

This highlights perhaps the most troubling aspect of the European plot story: diversification. Groups associated with al Qaeda – the IMU but also quite possibly affiliates from North Africa, the Gulf and Horn of Africa appear to be demonstrating interest in working with European nationals to carry out attacks in their domestic space. That represents a new level of internationalisation that will continue to challenge Western security forces.

Henry Wilkinson is associate director of Janusian Security Risk Management, the security and political risk subsidiary of the Risk Advisory Group. He is an expert on terrorism, asymmetric warfare, and intelligence, and a UN Global Expert (www.globalexpertfinder.org).