In the early 1990s, it was rock band The Scorpions that captured the mood of Europe with its song Wind of Change.
The song seemed to encapsulate the fall of the Berlin Wall, the fall of the Iron Curtain and the disintegration of the USSR. The mood was peace, love and a sense of homecoming for all those who had been left behind in Western Europe’s post-war boom.
Wind of Change was synonymous with the political changes that were taking place, root and branch, all over Eastern Europe. It was a peaceful revolution. In recent times we have seen other revolutions in Eastern Europe, with the Rose revolution in Georgia and the Orange Revolution in Ukraine.
In recent times, though, as we have already commented, we saw the popular uprising in Tunisia, now termed the Jasmine Revolution. It came out of nowhere and, within three weeks, the people of Tunisia forced the ouster of Zine el Abidine Ben Ali. They are still on the streets trying to force the removal of some of Ben Ali’s cronies, who now sit on the interim cabinet.
The protests spread to Algeria. We do not hear much from there, just as we did not hear much from Tunisia until the uprising gathered serious momentum. This, in itself, demonstrates just how oppressed these countries are.
In Libya, things are still quiet, as Ghaddafi still seems solidly cemented in his seat of rule. But since then, the troubles have spilled over to Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan. One, of course, has to mention the Green Movement in Iran, which was brutally oppressed by former freedom fighter-cum-holocaust denier Mahmoun Ahmadinejad. The tone is set. In a leading article last week, this newspaper had pointedly remarked that the Jasmine Revolution could be the start of a domino effect across the Arab and Muslim world.
The issues that set off the uprisings were poverty, joblessness, oppression and dictatorial rule. Now, if we looked all across the Maghreb, all the way into the Far East in places such as Turkmenistan – each and every place has the same problems. Each and every country from Morocco to Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Chechnya and beyond are ruled by iron-fisted regimes.
It is not an issue of religion. It is not an issue of race. Turkmenistanis have about as much in common racially to Tunisians as Maltese do to Swedes. The simple fact is that if you keep people under an iron fist, they will eventually topple you. This has happened since time immemorial. It still happens among our primate cousins, the apes.
If Tunsia’s Jasmine Revolution is followed up by lengthy protests in Egypt, then there will be nothing to stop the chain reaction that will follow. Regime after regime will fall. In some cases, they will be replaced by a democratic government. In others, it will simply be a new regime. The biggest problem is that the only thing similar to the EU is the AU and the Arab League. The first lacks clout and the second is in the pockets of the governments anyway, so there will be no real body that can steer a collective course. Time will tell.