It all started with one desperate but profoundly distressing act. When Tunisian student Mohamed Bouazizi set himself alight he sparked off a chain reaction that in the space of a few weeks destabilized the political climates of North Africa’s principal players. The events in Tunisia are now well known although the real outcome of the uprisings is still to be played out. As I write this piece, the drama of Egypt’s fate hangs in the balance. Unlike Algeria and Tunisia, the risks and stakes in Egypt are significantly higher… much, much higher!

Ironically, it all began on Egypt’s annual celebration of Police Day. In the preceding two years, young Egyptians had used Facebook and the Internet to solicit some reaction on the day. The events were quickly brushed over in a country where security remains tight especially at such events. This time the spark found much more volatile ground. As in most of the Middle East, the primary frustrations remain economic stagnation, rising prices and hopelessly high rates of unemployment, apart from seemingly disconnected dynastic regimes that have ruled for generations seemingly oblivious to the frustrations of the long suffering masses.

Ironically, both Bin Laden and US President George W. Bush had forecast these events albeit with extremely opposite hopes for the outcome. To begin with, the protests came mostly from Egypt’s disaffected youths. One of the Internet sites calling for mass protests was called ‘We are all Khalid Saeed.’ This is a direct reference to a young man who was unceremoniously hauled out of an Internet café last year and beaten to death by security forces in plain view of passers-by. It is evident that Tunisia’s Jasmine Revolution convulsed not only itself but was and is echoing around the Arab world. At the time there were also rumblings in the shrouded media blackness of Syria and the explosive air of the Sudan. And what of other players in the region such as Libya and Jordan? Clearly the age of stagnation in Arab politics is at an end.

Things seem to have reached a point of no return, at least in the case of Egypt. It is now the ensuing repercussions that will rock governments from the West to the Islamic revolutionaries in Teheran and as far as Peshawar. Seasoned commentators envisage three possible outcomes − a transition to democracy, a newly installed dictatorship strengthened by the force of the Army, or an Islamic State. Cynically, one opinion writer believes the first option is as likely as frying snowballs! Major powers around the world will jockey into position observing minute changes as they happen. Sadly, unlike other significant historical uprisings such as those of 1989, in the Middle East violence often dictates the outcome of political impasse. At any rate, the speed at which events are being unravelled reveals the unpreparedness of both the protagonists and international players.

Although Egypt has been ruled by a ‘strong man’ for more than 30 years, its post independence years have been anything but calm. The preceding Presidents Nasser and Sadat were to participate in historically significant events. Wars were fought and peace deals were brokered. Sadat would lose his life to the ire of Muslim militants still bent on crushing the state of Israel. One must not forget the still fresh memories of the massacres at Luxor and Sharm al Sheik. Apparently, the Islamist factions closely allied to Hamas are in the wings. Observers reiterate the strength that such groupings have especially at grass root level. It is evident that their actions will play a significant role in a possible peaceful transition in Egypt. That of course is yet to be seen.

These events have a particular significance especially for Malta. The stage were the drama is being played out is only a couple of hundred kilometres away. These countries, whether some of us like it or not, are our closest neighbours. As this drama unfolds, the repercussions must surely affect us one way or the other. Throughout all of this many of us remain distracted by insignificant issues that cloud our insular mindset, oblivious to the goings on so close to us. Of course there is very little we can do in such situations but wait. Looking the other way, or worse publicly attempting to exploit the sufferings of our neighbours are surely not the first things to do!

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