By the time I flew back on Saturday not only did he seem to be consolidating his position after various setbacks but there were various news reports of an actual rebound in some areas of the country.

The FT reported last Saturday that oil millions still flowed for Gaddafi and that the Libyan regime continues to benefit from export revenues as trade continued amid Western financial sanctions, while key Italian Minister of Economy and Finance Giulio Tremonti seemed to show more concern about a likely Maghrebi sovereign funds pull-out from European financial institutions rather than the harsh measures that were being mentioned in the media.

Although this article runs the risk of going stale by the time it appears in print – it is being filed Monday morning – the way developments have been unfolding in real time – one thing seems almost certain.

That no one predicted the quickness and rapidity with which the popular uprising and resistance surfaced.

The same way that no one anticipated a sturdy Gaddafi bounce back although it was evident from the word ‘go’ that he had nothing to lose and was thus expected to adopt – as he did – a no holds barred approach.

Without in any way attempting to denigrate the Prime Minister for having failed to see the writing on the wall of the way the unrest spread like wildfire in Libya only a few days after he visited it, it might be worth revisiting the statements he made in the local media.

It was evident that Lawrence Gonzi was apparently not only the last European Leader to visit Tripoli before all hell broke loose, but one could easily tell from the media comments that he was counting heavily on two things:

• That Gaddafi would keep his long repeated promise and finally visit Malta under the aegis of a 5+5% meeting come next June;

• That Malta banked on Libya’s full participation in order to ensure that the 5+5 meeting would not only prove to be a success but also that it would serve as ‘an opportunity to rebuild stability’ in the Mediterranean.

According to reports in other sections of the local media, “when asked whether Colonel Gaddafi was worried about how the events in neighbouring countries could affect Libya’s stability, Dr Gonzi said the Libyan leader was worried about the region like all other heads of state, but Dr Gonzi did not speculate about rumblings in Libya.”

He was reported to have spoken about the transitions underway in Egypt and Tunisia with the Libyan leader describing them as ‘these realities’ as well as how we (Malta and Libya) could prepare ourselves for the 5+5 meeting to use this as a contribution to the situation.

Dr Gonzi and Col Gaddafi also spoke about renewing the Friendship Agreement between the two countries, while touching various issues such as travel, education, fishing and investment.

Dr Gonzi said there had been ‘substantial progress’ to conclude the updated accord.

The two leaders were also reported to have spoken about ‘pending issues’ related to the Continental Shelf between Libya and Malta, which has become a bone of contention in oil exploration.

Dr Gonzi had not only announced that this month a technical commission was due to meet in Libya to try and conclude these talks as well as that there were also talks on reciprocal energy rights but also that “these issues are complex because they also involve other countries although he and Gaddafi had agreed to continue talks to try and reach a form of agreement that would not prejudice the interests of the parties involved but lead to a breakthrough.”

Taken out of context such words could jar, but this is merely intended to prove that many did not see the writing of the wall.

I am saying so out of the conviction that the PM would have cancelled his visit had he seen such unrest lurking on the horizon although to be fair, the first tremors could be felt by then already, particularly in Benghazi.

During an under reported Foreign & European Affairs Meeting that we held in Malta a few days after the crisis broke out, I raised a number of issues that one might dismiss as speculative but which remain topical particularly in the light of the recent turn of the events :

• Will Libya remain one state or be split up into various states?

• Will Gaddafi cling on the power or not?

• Will the influence of the tribes, that had been on the wane for some time, be bolstered and strengthened further?

• Will there actually be a civil war?

• For how long will the unrest last?

• How serious is the Islamic fundamentalist threat in Libya?

• Is it for real or merely to justify the status quo?

While Malta has excelled in assisting and facilitating the process for so many thousands of people to leave Libya, as a Mediterranean people we are duty bound to hope that the bloodshed will cease, that no more lives are lost and that a neighbouring country will be able to live at peace with itself.

In the past and not so distant past we have had many occasions when we read and heard of almost genocidal killings in various parts of Africa, but never did reports reach us concerning a country so close to home.

Particularly when recalling that the flying time from Tripoli to Malta is shorter than the flying time from Tripoli to Benghazi.

This created a high degree of concern and alarm amongst many people, particularly young generation members that I met and talked to. And it still does.

It was also evident when discussing developments with families I recently met during home visits, regardless of their political views.

There is one thing that I very much regret.

It is that while the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition seem to have been regularly in touch on developments – in sharp contrast with the partisan stand that Opposition parties adopted in countries like Italy and the USA, there were many local journalists who tried to ridicule such consultations by dismissing them as mere briefings while others rejoiced digging into the past to try and convey the subliminal message that the PL was much closer to Libya than the PN, when it is common knowledge that there were no political frontiers or barriers when it came to either political and or commercial exchanges between the two countries. On the contrary, financial backers of and people close to the inner circles of the Maltese governing party seemed to have been doing best in the recent surge of trade with Libya.

Recent glossy media accounts of Maltese companies that made successful breakthroughs in Libya speak for themselves. Good for them.

One hopes that in the coming days – ideally hours – common sense will prevail and that while neighbour countries, Malta included, will continue to safeguard their interests, foremost of which the national interest, as well as push for a more coherent and pro-active EU Mediterranean policy, the aspirations of the Libyan people will be met without any further bloodshed or external military intervention.

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www.leobrincat.com

Leo Brincat is the Shadow Minister for the Environment, Sustainable Development & Climate Change