The more time goes by, the plainer it becomes – time is running out for the Libyan rebels in Benghazi.

The simple fact that news of the conflict is hard to come by, suggests that Gaddafi’s forces are slowly but surely tightening the control noose around the country. It is only his story and that of Saif al-Islam which is emerging. Barely anything is heard from the rebels, and when news does come out, it is usually bad.

However, as Gaddafi continues to push his heavy weaponry along the coast, his supply lines continue to stretch. Not much is known about fuel stock, but 1,000 km of desert coast is not easy to cross and to cross it one needs fuel. Tanks and artillery also need ammunition, and the only thing that the rebels can hope for is daring midnight guerilla raid warfare. Gaddafi does not have the manpower, but he does have the machinery.

The rebels have not been as foolhardy as the rest of the world thought. They have been stockpiling weapons and equipment near Benghazi. Their arsenal includes tanks, artillery and an attack helicopter.

When the rebels have ventured out at night, they have found it very easy to reclaim towns and to capture troops and equipment. But the one area where they are weakest is in the air. Gaddafi’s forces have a few functioning military aircraft and when they have been deployed and used in anger, they have been lethal against the rag-tag rebel units.

The rebels have in fact shown unbelievable courage and discipline when one considers that most of them do not have any military training. But without a no-fly zone, their hopes are fading fast. As we have mentioned, they could wage a guerilla war. But such wars are heavily dependent on the cooperation of the surrounding general public. If the guerillas were to withdraw into the canyons and wadis, then they would be denied the support of the people. This would not be due to fickleness, but rather fear and terror of a depraved dictator.

Gaddafi has already begun to boast that the Libyan people are with him and that they are indicating the positions of rebel forces to his own. This is not because they are with him, it is because they are absolutely terrified of him.

The UK and France seem to have secured the backing of the US in imposing a no-fly zone. But unless Gaddafi is hit, and hit hard in the next coming days, we could see the fall of Benghazi very soon. Once Benghazi is brought to heel, then the rebellion will fail. What began as an Arab spring is very quickly becoming a winter slog. As protests lose their momentum in Yemen and Bahrain, it all seems to have stopped with Libya. If Libya falls, all Arab regimes would follow suit. But it is looking ever less likely now. Time is running out. The West still has a window of opportunity, but that is now shutting very quickly.