It is becoming very apparent that the longer the conflict drags out in Libya, the more Gaddafi seems to revel in it and become stronger – at least in his western stronghold.
The latest development at the time of writing was that the EU-backed African Union delegation had agreed on a ceasefire roadmap which has apparently been accepted by Gaddafi. The African Union proposed: An immediate ceasefire; the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid; protection of foreign nationals; a dialogue between the government and rebels on a political settlement and the suspension of Nato airstrikes.
The agreement was announced by South African President Jacob Zuma, who incidentally stopped off in Malta en route to Libya. He said: “The brother leader delegation has accepted the roadmap as presented by us.”
This is not entirely clear. What does the brother leader delegation actually mean? Does it mean that Gaddafi accepted it? Or does it mean that people close to Gaddafi’s inner core had said he accepted it?
In the meantime, Gaddafi forces continue to shell civilians and rebels in Misurata and near Ajdabiya. Nato said it had stepped up its efforts over the past few days in terms of strikes on tanks near the aforementioned towns, as well as near Benghazi.
It is wrong to believe that the battering of Gaddafi’s military machine alone will bring him down. While he still retains support – whether drawn out of fear or genuine passion – it is unlikely that he will leave.
What is sure is that Gaddafi will not step down willingly. The Libyan rebels, who seemed to be making inroads, only to be pushed back again, have said that there will be no ceasefire deal while Gaddafi is still in power.
Ultimately, we are back where we started – a to and fro stalemate. The rebels are continuing to pursue for diplomatic recognition, but it is only France, Italy and Qatar that have followed through and fulfilled those wishes. Italy, perhaps, because it knows that all bridges with Gaddafi are now burned, and France because Sarkozy has embarked on a campaign to boost his flagging poll ratings, though conscience might also have a part to play.
The UK, with its oil interests in Libya, continues to do its job quietly, pounding Gaddafi’s armour with strike after strike. No doubt, the foreign secretary is hard at work behind the scenes.
As this conflict pans out, we have also seen a shift in European politics; a previously inconceivable close co-operation agreement between Paris and London has seen Cameron and Sarkozy wrest power from German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Germany has largely taken a back seat in this one, and it is attributable to the German government deciding to protect its fragile political situation, while at the same time dedicating energy and man hours to the eurozone issue.
What is certain is that the conflict is far from over. The rebels are woefully ill-equipped to deal with Gaddafi’s forces. Petrol has been choked off, arms have been denied, cash has been seized and his installations pounded – yet, Gaddafi holds on, and with gusto.
Gaddafi still appears in public and continues to pull the strings, and heavily. While his human rights record is appalling, one must marvel at the way the Bedouin has managed to stay in power.