Syrian security forces last Saturday fired on funeral processions that drew tens of thousands, one day after the bloodiest crackdown so far in the uprising against President Bashar Assad. The shootings pushed the two-day death toll to more than 120 and two lawmakers and a religious leader resigned in disgust over the killings.
The resignations were a possible sign of cracks developing in the regime’s base in a nation where nearly all opposition figures have been either jailed or exiled during the 40-year dynasty of the Assad family.
The relentless crackdown on demonstrations has only served to invigorate protesters whose rage over the bloodshed has all but eclipsed their earlier demands for modest reforms. Now, many are seeking Assad’s downfall.
Each Friday, growing numbers of people in cities across the country have taken to the streets despite swift attacks from security forces and shadowy pro-government gunmen known as “shabiha.”
112 people were killed Friday and at least 11 on Saturday. Friday was by far the deadliest day of the uprising, with security forces beating back protesters with bullets, tear gas and stun guns.
The uprising in Syria takes its inspiration from the popular revolts that toppled the leaders in Egypt and Tunisia. But Syria is a highly unpredictable country, in part because of its sizable minority population, the loyalty of the country's military and the regime's web of allegiances to powerful forces including Lebanon's Hezbollah and Shiite powerhouse Iran.
Serious, prolonged unrest in Syria would almost inevitably hurt Hezbollah and weaken Iran's influence in the region. But it is not at all clear what factions would have the upper hand if a power vacuum emerges in Syria. There are no organised, credible opposition leaders who can rally followers on the ground or be considered as a possible successor.
The heavy security crackdown on Friday and Saturday came after Assad warned a week ago that any further unrest would be considered “sabotage” after he made the gesture of lifting long-hated emergency laws, which gave security forces almost blanket powers for surveillance and arrest.
The protest movement has been the gravest challenge to the autocratic regime led by Assad, who inherited power from his father 11 years ago in one of the most rigidly controlled countries in the Middle East.
Assad has blamed most of the unrest on a “foreign conspiracy” and armed thugs trying to sow sectarian strife. Fears of sectarianism resonate in Syria, with the dangers of fractured societies so apparent in neighbouring Iraq and Lebanon.
Besides the government crackdown, Assad has been trying to defuse the protests by offering a series of concessions: granting citizenship to thousands among Syria's long-ostracized Kurdish minority, firing local officials, releasing detainees and forming a new government. The recent lifting of emergency laws once had been a top demand.
But many protesters said the concessions have come too late and that Assad does not even deserve the credit because the protest movement is forcing his hand.