Some people say they’re thankful the whole divorce thing is over, whichever way the vote goes. But I say that it’s far from over, not by a long shot. This thing is going to run. And run. And run.

It is going to shape events between now and the general election, and it will shape the outcome of that general election too.

I have heard some people suggest that if the No vote prevails, then the Prime Minister will call a snap general election to shore up support and get rid of the MPs who have made his life hell. The understanding is that the majority who votes No will also vote for the Nationalist Party.

But the numbers don’t work out, nor does the voter-psychology. The government will get an even bigger trashing now, in the immediate wake of a No vote, then it will get two years down the line with the same referendum result.

The reason for this is staring us in the face. The divorce referendum vote is not split more or less along party lines as it was with EU membership. A high percentage of those who voted PN in the last general election voted Yes yesterday. Practically everybody I know voted Yes, with only a few exceptions. The majority of new voters in 2008 voted PN, yet the polls (and talking) show that they overwhelmingly voted Yes.

Yet the No vote – at least going on the last polls – was neck and neck with the Yes vote. This could only mean one thing: that a high percentage of those who voted Labour in the last general election voted against divorce legislation yesterday. But they are not going to vote for Lawrence Gonzi and the Nationalist Party at a general election just because they happen to agree with him on this one.

Divorce will not motivate them to vote against ‘their’ party and for ‘the enemy’ in the same way that EU membership did. It’s just not the same thing at all. They see it as a side issue in the general scheme of things. It’s just divorce, full stop. On their scale of priorities, getting Labour into government ranks far higher than blocking divorce legislation does. It wasn’t the same with the EU referendum, when getting Malta into the EU ranked much higher for many Labour supporters than getting Labour into government.

But for many of those who voted Yes, it is certainly a big issue and it is about far more than mere divorce legislation. It’s about opposition to imposition and interference in the lives of adults, the final separation of Church and State, the desire to subscribe to the normality of the rest of Europe and leave this tin-pot eccentricity behind.

A good percentage of those who voted Yes will have voted PN in recent general elections – again, this certainly covers most people I know − and some will do so again even if the No vote prevails. But others will be too angry, irritated and disillusioned to do so. They will not vote Labour (but some might). They will just stay away from the polling booth. That’s how Lawrence Gonzi almost lost the last general election even against the tried-tested-and-failed Alfred Sant – because lots of those who usually vote for the Nationalists just stayed home and voted for no one.

Then in the European Parliament elections shortly afterwards, they voted for Labour candidates, mainly Louis Grech and Edward Scicluna. Louis Grech was elected on the strength of the ‘Nationalist’ vote, which put him way ahead of his rivals. Many of those same people are likely to set the Nationalist Party aside again in 2013. They will also have voted Yes yesterday.

I am one of those who voted Yes yesterday but who will not vote Labour or fail to vote in 2013, even if the No vote prevails. I prefer to keep my eyes on the ball. In 2013 we get to choose who runs the country, and the choice is between (failing a deus ex machina or two) Gonzi and Muscat. I think that Muscat is rubbish, that his deputies are dangerously incompetent and that Labour is not fit for purpose.

So it’s obvious that I’m not going to vote for them or act in any other way, like not voting at all or voting for a third party, which will put them in charge of the country. Let others make that mistake. I have no desire to have any part in it. I will no more vote Labour to spite Lawrence Gonzi than I would have voted No yesterday to spite Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando. That’s playground thinking.

But not everybody rationalises the situation that way, as we have seen in one general election after another. Thousands of people aren’t bothered about keeping their eyes on the ball. Their immediate emotions and concerns eclipse the long view, even the short view sometimes. And that is what will happen if the No vote prevails: lots of people will think it’s worth telling Gonzi and his party where to shove his preaching and dogma even if it means getting to be governed by Joseph Muscat.

They might even think that this is the sensible long view: knocking the Nationalists out and forcing them to rethink certain things, even if by doing so we get a Labour government that can cause untold damage over five years. They would say that it’s worth the risk, because we cannot carry on as we are today.

And if the Yes vote prevails? Then the Nationalist Party has a greater chance of winning the next general election because much of the anger and frustration will be dissipated. But that all depends on how the divorce bill is tackled in parliament. If key Nationalist MPs continue with their plan to vote against divorce legislation regardless then, as the Maltese saying goes, loosen your hair and go get the oil.

So yes, whatever happened yesterday, it’s going to run. And run.