What we are seeing in Libya today is exactly what many, who know the country and its people, predicted; and that is stalemate.

Libya is not the Libya we see drawn onto maps. The territorial boundaries that we know today are merely lines drawn in the sand by the previous colonial powers. Libya sits next to Tunisia and Algeria in the West and Egypt to the East. All of these nations are former European colonies that were partitioned off to suit their rules.

Traditional Libya is made up of tribes of Bedouin who hold great sway over the ‘politics’ of the nation. Gaddafi has ruled there with an iron fist for 40 years, yet it was only through fear and his security services, that he managed.

For all the proclamations by the Libyan rebels, the East and West of the country are very different. In fact, in times gone by, the two were completely separate entities.

What we are witnessing now is two sides that have reached stalemate. Gaddafi hides in bunkers and protects himself with human shields, while the rebels mount assaults that never get anywhere. All the while, just like in a computer game, Western jets and missiles pummel Tripoli as well as Gaddafi’s military hardware.

They will eventually get Gaddafi, or he might just sling his hook one of these days and that is where we need to ask the pertinent question: What will happen after his ouster? In the East, the older heads complain that many youths believe that the revolution is theirs and theirs alone, they take orders from no one and have a great dislike for authority. In the West, the situation is different. People are still bolted up at home and do not come out unless necessary. One wonders how reconciliation can ever take place given the cultural, geographical and ethnic divisions in this vast North African continent. The best case scenario is a squabbling unified Libya. The worst case scenario is full-blown civil war between East and West.

■ Chris Cauchi

Mosta