Certainly, there are plenty of other things closer to home to worry about than the parlous and deteriorating state of relations between Israel and the Palestinians

Greek sovereign debt has just been downgraded, again, throwing eurozone finance ministers into a panic. Gaddafi continues to defy Nato and the will of his own people. Al-Assad, the once cool-headed autocrat of Syria, has unleashed fresh horrors on his compatriots, turning tight the screw of repression. But beyond Europe’s financial quagmire and the Arab world’s political turmoil, a rare, summer-long window of opportunity for renewed negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel has opened.

The Palestinian Authority’s intention to push for a vote in the UN General Assembly in September on the recognition of a Palestinian state on 1967 borders is not new. What has created the possibility for a re-initiation of negotiations with Israel is, first, the wave of civil unrest sweeping through Arab countries and, second, a resultant, somewhat revolutionary shift in the US position on the borders of a future Palestinian state.

The first change has put pressure on the Fatah-ruled Palestinian Authority to make peace between the two rival Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, each of which governs part of the Palestinian territories after a violent split in 2005. Though Hamas has yet to renounce the use of violence in its relations with Israel, which puts would-be international interlocutors in a morally awkward position, unity between the two factions is a prerequisite for meaningful negotiations with Israel. Without this unity, any solution negotiated and concluded by one faction with Israel would be of questionable popular legitimacy among Palestinians.

The second change has shifted the structure of the conflict. US President Obama’s recent speech to the US State Department on Middle East policy marked a significant shift towards the longstanding position of the European Union and away from Israel’s position on its national borders: Namely, that the starting point for negotiations on the contours of a future Palestinian state should be the pre-June 1967 borders, rather than the current de facto borders, of Israel. Without American support on this, Israel would be hard-pressed not to concede ground to the Palestinians, who view the ‘sanctity’ of the pre-1967 borders as a core negotiating principle. That means one less obstacle to peace, and an enormously important one to boot.

The catch is that the clock is ticking as never before. In as little as three months the Palestinian Authority intends to win recognition in the UN General Assembly for a Palestinian state on pre-1967 lines. With a marginalised Israel, a divided Europe, and the influential Organisation of the Islamic Conference to factor in, if a vote does take place, a majority of UN members would likely favour the Palestinian Authority.

An open split among EU countries at the UN on such a major foreign policy issue is inevitable and would leave an ugly dent in Europe’s credibility as an international actor. While the solidity of Europe’s monetary union continues to come into question, a poor show of political unity in the face of an external challenge is something Europe should do its utmost to avoid, at least for the time being.

More importantly, UN recognition of a Palestinian state would create a de jure state – and quite likely not even that – with de facto problems, like jurisdiction over certain territory, access between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, the fate of Jerusalem, and the rights of Palestinian refugees, that can only really be overcome through a negotiated solution between the two parties.

The EU has so far appeared cognisant of the opportunities presented by the ‘Arab Spring’ for the Middle East peace process, as well as the risks posed by a possible vote in the UN General Assembly. The European Parliament’s Mediterranean Intergroup, of which I form part, has been active in pushing the European Commission and the Council on the need for a coherent and immediate European effort to revive the stalled peace process. The issue now tops the agenda of the next EU foreign ministers meeting in Luxembourg on Monday, where an EU position can be ironed out.

In short, the Arab uprisings have improved the context for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians and the EU is doing what it can to seize the opportunity, but negotiations in themselves are only a small step towards peace. The region’s history compels us not to get our hopes up too high.