Greece’s Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos broke the silence late on Monday night, saying he believes a new bailout deal can be hammered out at an emergency EU summit to be held tomorrow.
His belief, he said, is built around the progress that has been registered in talks between European governments and private bond holders in drawing up a new rescue plan.
He also said that Greece’s €340 billion debt had brought it to the brink, but it was bouncing back and on course to reach a primary budget surplus next year, despite missing key fiscal targets so far.
As ever, the fear of contagion is palpable. Greece has sunk further into the mire, Spain continues to teeter and Italy is also now feeling the stark reality of the debt crisis. This could explain why Europe’s politicians have been so quiet; this is not the time for spin or hype.
The rumours of progress must, however, have substance as Europe’s markets bounced back and registered positive trading yesterday morning. Borrowing rates for Spain and Italy, however, have spiked and this is one of the many reasons why Mr Venizelos decided to speak on the record, late on a Monday night.
His words, however, revealed something startling – people betting on default. He described the recent pressure on Italian and Spanish borrowing rates resulting from bets against those countries and the euro by financial speculators.
“(We are witnessing) organised attacks on countries with very good macroeconomic data, such as Italy for example,” he said. “There is no panic, this is a very cool-headed and well-organised attack.”
This coupled with the long-known conflict between governments and credit rating agencies, could have much wider implications. The conflict stems from the fact that ratings agencies are both players and regulators, something which governments believe, makes them somewhat at odds with themselves.
But when an economy, and indeed a shared currency, has more pressure in the form of organised betting, then the problem is much more serious – it’s tantamount to existence of ‘black’ credit agencies.
But, it seems Greece knows what it is doing on the negotiating table. Mr Venizelos pointed out that this is not about Greece, but about the euro. He said leaders know that Greece cannot be allowed to default, as it would lead to a domino effect across the eurozone. Greece wants to borrow from Europe until 2014, when it says it should be able to return to the commercial markets for money loans.
But ratings agencies have warned that the plan, which endorses private sector involvement, could prompt them to further downgrade Greece credit status to selective default. That assessment could plunge Europe’s worsening debt crisis into greater turbulence.
Malta, will of course be attending the meeting, and provided all guarantees are observed, we are likely to endorse the deal. Meanwhile, parliament met last night to discuss the situation, after a motion calling for a debate was put forward by the Labour Party. Such debates are important, so the information can be passed down, direct through radio broadcasts and the media, to the general public.
On the content of that debate, we will write at a later date. But in conclusion, one must mention the PL’s Joseph Cuschieri, who has again ruffled feathers by going public with his pressure on the PM to raise the sixth seat (which he is due to fill) issue, with Greece. While one understands his frustration, one must point out that there are a few rather more important things on the agenda. At least he stopped short of saying we should hold Greece to ransom, this time.