Outgoing European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet must be tearing his hair out. Mr Trichet, long-argued to be one of the best economical and financial minds on the planet, has repeatedly urged banks and countries to stop thinking in the short-term and to stop undervaluing risk.
The 68-year-old, who has been at the helm of the ECB for close to 10 years, was also an ardent enforcer of the bank’s hands-off approach – a mere watchdog for inflation. But all that has changed. The ECB has, all of a sudden, become the last bastion of hope for the eurozone.
In a far cry from its position just a couple of years ago, the bank has now turned into a bond purchaser for eurozone countries that are, by definition, high risk. The ECB has already intervened in other bailouts, but it is now taking a direct role in absorbing the high-risk bonds which the governments of Spain and Italy have issued.
Spain is wracked by unemployment. Latest figures show that over 20% of the country’s citizens are jobless and in some areas, youth unemployment is as high as 60%. At the same time, the Spanish government’s attempts at passing austerity measures are hitting a brick wall in parliament, suggesting that there is a long arduous road ahead.
Italy, meanwhile, has a massive public debt of 120% of GDP and a yo-yo deficit. Italy’s problem lies in its growth rate. The third largest eurozone economy has only grown by mere decimals of percentage points over the last few quarters. These factors, accompanied by Silvio Berlusconi’s erratic decisions, will do nothing to assuage the worries of the credit ratings agencies.
The writing has been on the wall for a long time. This newspaper has been publishing leading articles on this subject for the past two years. When Greece faltered, we were one of the first to ask: “What next?” From there, we saw Ireland and Portugal cave in, and now we have come unbelievably close to seeing Italy and Spain asking for a bailout.
In the end, it was the ECB that rode in to the rescue. But here, we have to again question the way this is panning out. The ECB has always pushed for long-term thinking. But aside from individual states’ austerity measures and reform processes, we have not seen any strategic planning. It is always a short-term quick-fix hammered out during lunch or dinner at a hastily convened EU summit.
It is becoming increasingly clear that there needs to be some form of authority which can look at matters from a different angle. Painful decisions need to be taken, and if this does not happen, we are going to witness a European currency meltdown. Maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but if we do not start to think and plan in a cohesive manner across the board, and implement those plans across the eurozone, then this is exactly what will happen. Quick fixes are all the eurozone has seen so far. The bailout pact evolved and changed, and now the supposed hands-off regulator is buying the riskiest bonds around in order to prevent another ‘default’. One wonders what will happen next. And more importantly, one wonders what the ECB President designate – Italian Mario Draghi – will do when he takes the hotseat in the coming months.