As every politician in Malta has suddenly become an expert in government finances, deficits and balance sheets, everyone seems to be ignoring the wider picture.
Without going into the explanations of how deficits and debt targets work, one must explain that the only reason why the eurozone is currently afloat, is that the European Central Bank bought up bonds issued by governments of struggling countries. These include Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Italy. The bonds were bought up by the ECB because the cost of borrowing from the commercial markets which would have been incurred would have made each of these economies go bust.
The current President of the European Central Bank is Jean Claude Trichet, the shrewd Frenchman who said that the ECB would never be more than a regulator. He was forced to change tack when it was clear that there were no more safety nets; the bank would have to intervene. The announcement that the ECB would begin buying junk and stressed bonds coincided with the nomination of Italian Mario Draghi, to take up the helm once Trichet’s term expires next month.
The decision to buy bonds was not at all well received in some quarters of Europe. France, with high exposure in Spain and Italy, was quick to put its weight behind the decision. Germany, though, was very, very reluctant in acceptance.
And that is where we get to our point. While Germany did accept, and the eurozone limped on, the divisions are now starting to show, as the ECB’s Chief Economist, Juergen Stark, has resigned. The ECB said that Mr Stark had left for personal reasons, but the real reason seems to be that there is a lot of conflict within the bank’s structures over the bond buying programme.
Mr Stark’s departure comes almost three years before his term is due to expire in May 2014 and the news also sent the stock markets tumbling head over heels, fuelling fears that differences within the ECB would make tackling the debt crisis “more problematic”.
Mr Stark is understood to have been one of four members of the ECB who voted against last month’s decision to revive a programme of buying stressed bonds. Over the past few weeks, the ECB has bought more than €35bn in bonds, significantly reducing Italian and Spanish spreads over benchmark German Bunds, on top of the €76bn in Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds it has bought since May 2010.
But the plot thickens; it has now also emerged that former Bundesbank President Axel Weber, who had been the frontrunner to succeed ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, resigned and withdrew from the race for exactly the same reasons as Mr Stark. It is absolutely clear that there are huge divisions within the ECB and Germany is not at all happy at having to finance the deals, while at the same time paying more to borrow commercially, while others enjoy low rates. One can hardly blame them. This is not about economics, it is about politics. While all this transpires, here in Malta, we are content to bicker about a Moody’s downgrade. It is a signal, true, but our would-be leaders really ought to do a bit more homework before making public statements on the matter. As usual, politicians cannot see the wood for the trees, when the writing has always been there on the wall, for anyone willing to look at it and see it for what it was.