I don’t have access to any opinion polls but I would wager that at the height of summer, the PN’s popularity nosedived spectacularly.

The party had been riven by the divorce debate and the side it took proved to be the losing side.

Any hope it could regain in public confidence by offering the long-suffering Maltese public a state-of-the-art public transport was messed up by the worst launch in recent history, whose echoes are still reverberating to this very day.

And there was, of course, that business about the €500 a week rise that ministers received.

The GonziPN administration seemed to be in a hole so deep it could never ever hope to climb out of.

I am still of that opinion.

This end of summer 2011 is a crucial time. It is the time to lay the basis for the next election’s policy issues. To go for an election basing one’s campaign on the achievements of the past legislature is a weak and very thin plank.

They have indeed been impressive – Malta has been significantly less affected by the world recession than other countries. The enthusiasm that the Opposition has exhibited in belabouring the Moody’s credit rating decision only shows how little else there is to say. Malta continues to have the fifth lowest unemployment figure in the EU, slightly below that of mighty Germany. Last year, its GDP growth was one of the very few growth figures in the entire eurozone.

Yet it is easy to poke holes in such a claim and for the Opposition to point at the higher prices for electricity and fuel prices, and the very common perception of anyone you meet that things are much harder now for all.

As the former Central Bank Governor had been saying for years, and the European Commission and any other analyst, one way to regain lost ground in ratings is for the government to cut down its expenditure. But that would mean shutting down some social service, reducing the number of people employed by the government, and the like. That is one way to tip the balance from a sulky population to an angry population that will stage street protests.

On balance, there will always be many who do not consider the government’s achievements to be anything to write home about, even if the government itself must feel this is completely unfair.

People will also point at the state of the roads, and the widespread lack of proper service one gets from most government departments and business where the main idea seems to hit the public first and see later.

It would be worse than that if the government were to go to the country on the basis of its monumental building spree. The City Gate Renzo Piano project is on track and will be finished in time for the election, and no doubt the government will pull out all the stops to boast of doing what no other government has ever done. But first let’s see the overall impression once its finished. Hopefully, it will not be another Arriva. Secondly, most people were against City Gate with no gate and the roofless Opera House ideas. Thirdly, there is still the debate on what to do with the Tritons Fountain to get through. It may reinforce in people’s minds the prevailing impression that this is a hardheaded government.

So no, to climb back up cannot be on the back of past achievements, even those that will be completed by the time the election comes round.

Nor will the government climb up by ratcheting up this spate of anti-Labour and anti-Joe Muscat rhetoric. Negative campaigning of this sort will inevitably boomerang.

At present, the government is trying to climb up by getting a ride over what is happening in Libya. This was quite evident in the past days, with the much-trumpeted arrival of the Gaddafi nanny, then with the AFM boat that was sent to Tripoli to ensure that the Maltese embassy could be reopened. (Funny, that: we were always told during the bad days of fighting in Libya that the Maltese embassy was never closed, then that it was being manned by local employees, now we hear it had been ransacked and closed.)

The government spin culminated in Friday’s meeting at Il-Fosos with the presence of NTC spokespersons all thanking the government for its help.

On the local side, the government had a far too easy ride since, for all the protests from the PL side, it was always evident to all that it was the successive Labour administrations that had a cosy relationship with the Gaddafi regime.

Yet some decorum is asked for. We still have key people who have visited Gaddafi and have yet to condemn the atrocities committed by his regime. We still have key people who still speak of Libya in terms of business opportunities rather than declare solidarity with its beleaguered people and friendship between peoples as against friendly relations between states.

Even the government risks sailing close to the wind here as the underlying perception seems to be eagerness to reopen Mitiga Airport, resume the Air Malta flights, and reopen the business concerns run or owned by the Maltese under the previous regime.

Bringing two, three, five injured persons to Malta is just a small token of friendship. There is a far wider range where Maltese help, especially if disinterested and genuine, can be very welcome.

As I said the last time I wrote here, one significant help would be to stop Gaddafi henchmen from escaping from justice by coming here and by ferreting out and sending back those who have rightly been called ‘Gaddafi’s spies’. Malta needs to show that the days of criminal connivance and complicity are over.

Secondly, Malta can help much in the field of education. Tunisia may have a larger university population but there is the significant language divide. Libyans are not Franco-phones and many speak English well enough to understand and to learn. They have shown themselves to be very resourceful.

An even more important subject on which the PN must structure its electoral offer is its stand on the economy.

As a result of its stand over the past years, Malta is now not only in the EU but also in eurozone. It owes it to the people who supported its stands to make membership of the EU and of the eurozone a success.

This, at present, is rather tricky. As I write, the news has come that the Greek Prime Minister has put off a trip to New York because of renewed fears about the Greek economy and its survival.

Everyone says one does not want Greece to default, that a Greek default will be horrible and a Lehman Brothers writ large, but one can note a certain air of inevitability creeping in most informed comment. Some seem to have accepted this will be the ultimate development. The margin keeps getting progressively narrower.

There are stumbling blocks galore ahead: will the Slovak Parliament ratify the EFSF agreement, or the Finnish, or the Dutch? Will Angela Merkel overcome the rabid anti-Greek feeling fomented by papers such as Bild Zeitung. Will the top French banks succumb to fears caused by the wider fear of a Greek default?

Over the past days we have seen a creep of opinion by Labour politicians such as Edward Scicluna and Alfred Sant while the government has kept its head down. Tonio Fenech goes to Ecofin meetings and comes back but we still lack a coherent explanation of the government’s stance at Brussels and Frankfurt.

The situation is such that at every turn one expects to know the government’s position. If we do not have a position, do we latch on to Germany and vote accordingly or do we have an opinion of our own and can sustain it?

A similar case where careful balance is called for and a coherent explanation of the Malta position is that of the UN vote on Palestine as a state. Once again, opinion among EU member states is split but Malta must come up with an opinion it is happy about and one that serves our long-term aims. It is no longer a foregone conclusion that Malta supports the Palestinians through and through. Nor must Malta switch to support Israel the way the US does.

There are other issues coming up – Air Malta, new investment, pending appointments, and so on. We wait in anticipation to see whether the PN and its Prime Minister can climb out of the hole they are in.

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