The United States pressed Egypt’s interim military leadership to strengthen Egypt’s partnership with Israel and stick to scheduled elections later this year, even though a new set of leaders much less friendly to the US and the Jewish state may be the winners.

The American demands on Egypt represent in some ways the twin set of hopes and fears with the movements for greater democracy in the Arab world. The Obama administration has championed those movements but hopes to corral their energy so that political transitions from Tunisia to Yemen don’t slide back into military domination or create a powerful new wave of intolerant populism — as occurred after Iran’s Islamic revolution a little more than three decades ago.

The US also hopes populism unleashed in Cairo and elsewhere does not spell the end of Arab alliances with Israel, which while always shallow and filled with suspicion were still a foundation of US policy in the Middle East. With the fall of US-backed autocrats such as Egypt’s Mubarak, however, the US may have less to offer Arab governments in return for their toleration of Israel.

With Egypt, the United States is trying to lay the foundation for renewed relations with a future government that will be more democratic if less amenable to US interests. Washington hopes to persuade Egypt’s leaders to salvage ties with Israel and maintain counterterrorism and diplomatic efforts that may be deemed vital for American national security but not necessarily supported by the Egyptian people.

The fraying of relations with Israel has especially concerned the United States, which has been lobbying much of the world in recent weeks against a Palestinian bid for recognition as a state and UN membership. Egypt, which under Mubarak often played a key mediation role between the two sides, has come out determinedly for the Palestinian bid over fierce Israeli opposition.

With Egyptian elections around the corner, Washington’s relations with Egypt will likely become more difficult. At stake is American influence in a crucial geopolitical space linking North Africa to the Arabian Peninsula, and how the US projects power in a part of the world where al-Qaeda and other Islamist extremists still pose a threat to the United States and where the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to hamper American relations with Arab countries.

Among American officials, the early hopes of a triumph for democracy and rule of law after Mubarak’s February ouster, alongside a continuum of US-Egyptian cooperation, have slipped somewhat amid increasingly worrying signs: the apparent chaos in the Israeli embassy storming, the arrest of demonstrators and bloggers, the extension of the Mubarak-era emergency law empowering authorities to detain people without charge and stamp out strikes and demonstrations.

The vote for Egypt’s legislative People’s Assembly starts on 28 November and the less powerful Shura Council on 29 January, with both parliamentary houses to begin their session in March. And well-organised Islamist parties could make significant gains, with the hardline Muslim Brotherhood likely to parlay any new power into a far tougher line on cooperation with the United States and Israel.

While any new government would likely honour the 1979 accords with Israel, the result may be one closer to cold peace than regional partnership. Neither the remnants of the old regime nor youth-driven secular groups are keen to assume the banner of Mubarak’s unpopular legacy or ignore the voices on the streets which mobilized so forcefully against Mubarak.