I did not expect Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi to be so open about his election thoughts. Usually, he is very reluctant to be drawn into commenting about possibilities and how he thinks the Nationalist Party will fare in a national poll, especially if this is relatively still very far away.

It seems that, after what has been a rather difficult year for the Nationalist Party and government, he has thrown caution to the wind in a bid to raise the spirits of his party officials and, more so, of his supporters.

Minister Austin Gatt, on the Sunday preceding Independence Day, made one of his famous statements when he said that the PN will remain in power for the next 20 years, given what it has done and will do for Malta.

The Labour Party described it as yet another piece of arrogance from a minister who has come to be known for similar outbursts, and it is no surprise that the PL was quick to come up with posters it hung up all over Malta – this time aimed to rouse negative sentiments against the government among Labour supporters.

I could not help putting the question to Dr Gonzi when I interviewed him at The Granaries the day after Dr Gatt’s statement, during PN activities to celebrate the 47th anniversary of Independence. What I asked, more as a provocation than as an attempt to elicit a clear answer, was whether he agreed with what Dr Gatt had said.

I was quite surprised with the answer I was given. I was expecting the Prime Minister to play things down, possibly even to politely try to reduce the furore caused by Dr Gatt’s remarks. I could tell PN supporters were fully behind Dr Gatt, judging by the crowd’s loud cheers in those few moments that separated my question and Dr Gonzi’s answer.

But the Prime Minister did not try to calm the waters. His answer to my question, if anything, stirred up more fervour. To be fair, he was not as blunt as Dr Gatt had been – and that is because their characters are different – but at the same time he was less guarded than I expected him to be.

Maybe he was carried away, although the Prime Minister does not normally fall into such traps, or else he did not want to be seen as going against what Dr Gatt had said, as this would have sowed doubts in the people hearing him.

I was even more surprised with his speech during the traditional PN mass meeting on the eve of Independence Day. Dr Gonzi’s address here was one that politicians normally reserve for the weeks leading up to an election, both in content and in style.

And this time there was no provocation from a journalist. This time Dr Gonzi himself chose to take this road.

It is reasonable to think that the election will be held more or less in 18 months’ time, one Saturday between March and May of that year. Although the term can be extended to August, I do not believe that the Prime Minister intends to take it that far.

Some people are arguing that the election could even be held in late 2012, but I doubt this will be the case. I think that the government intends to use the last two budgets to try to make up some lost ground and endear itself with the electorate, especially with the floating voters. And it will wait until the effects of the budget for 2013 have seeped in before giving us ‘the date’.

But during the Independence celebrations, the Prime Minister seems to have already fired the starting pistol. Or at least he tried he tried to pump up some positive feeling among the hardliners after what has been a difficult period for him, his government and his party, mostly because of the honoraria and divorce issues.

Unlike in his first term as Prime Minister, when he tried his best to calm down all speculation about the 2008 election right till the end, explaining that it was harmful for the country to be in election mode for a long period, this time Dr Gonzi has taken a different approach.

Of course, he will probably use the coming weeks and months trying to put out the fire he has ignited, but it is difficult to imagine that he will manage to do so, especially with an Opposition that has never abandoned its election cause since it was narrowly beaten in 2008. That still hurts Labour, and it will leave no stone unturned to try to turn the tables when the time comes.

Suffice it to say that all through summer, which is normally a quiet time in political terms, the Labour Party has kept the political battle going with frequent press conferences and even more regular statements.

This was supposed to have been the last quiet summer in this term – the next one will be too close to the election to expect a lull – but Labour did its best to stay in the news anyway. As the government rarely leaves a Labour statement unanswered, the executive had to remain at full alert all the time.

We are used to the tit-for-tat exchanges that often verge on the ridiculous as both parties repeat things over and over again ad nauseam, apart from often picking on innocuous matters that have little relevance, but the rhythm has already picked up considerably. And, as election day approaches, the momentum is set to increase.

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