Late on Sunday evening, the Greek government announced that it was falling behind on its deficit reduction targets and was likely to close the year two percentage points off what it had originally projected.
The announcement came before a meeting with the ‘Troika’ – the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Union. The figures led to Greece conceding to the ‘Troika’ and 23,000 civil servants approaching retirement will lose their positions along with another 7,000 which are expected to be made redundant in mergers and privatisation schemes.
The news sent the markets tumbling once more, and all this just prior to an Ecofin meeting which was to be held last night in Luxembourg where eurozone Finance Ministers were expected to assess Greece’s progress on reforms before the next tranche of aid (€8bn) is given to the country to prevent default within a week or so.
The news also came just before a European Council meeting which is due to be held in a couple of weeks. But things do not look good at all. Financial Times commentator Wolfgang Munchau likened the new mechanism being discussed as a “con trick for the desperate”. What Munchau is referring to is the latest plan to ‘tweak’ the eurozone rescue fund and turn it into a sort of insurance company.
He likened the plan to a return to what caused the bubble to burst in the first place – collateralised debt obligation. This he says is like “putting explosives into a can and kicking it down the street”. Very worrying indeed.
All this will be put on the table by the European Commissioner Ollie Rehn, and a decision is expected to be taken. But on top of it all, Greece’s economy is expected to contract by a further 2% next year, on top of a projected end of 2011 contraction of 5.5%. It is clear that any recovery must hinge on austerity, coupled with growth.
But perhaps the lack of growth will recondition Greece’s current ramshackle and shoddy attitude towards the crisis. If Greece manages to somehow register a surplus in the future, then it could, at least, stabilise its financial situation, if not its credit rating. Only once it begins to register growth (a very long shot given the current state of affairs), will Greece be able to claw back some vestiges of its credit trustworthiness.
But aside from all this technical jargon, the fact remains that the euro, hence the eurozone, is flawed and has been from the very start. The issue of sovereignty has also been raised in this debate with countries asking why on earth they should contribute to another handout to Greece, when their own country’s finances are stable and well managed. This has already led European Commission President Barroso to deliver two speeches on solidarity and the need to keep the eurozone together, etc.
But, when is the European Commission actually going to shoulder some blame for this mess? It must admit that the euro was launched badly, stark warning signals were ignored even in the planning stage, yet it went ahead and was allowed to distort and change, and ultimately fail.
The only reason why the euro is still afloat is the bailouts to Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain. And the lessons are simple. Just like our grandmothers taught us. “Never borrow money that you can’t pay back” - “Don’t lend to a bad debtor” and “Always save for a rainy day”. Simples, as the meerkats would say.