The news of the killing of a tyrant who ruled Libya with an iron fist for almost 42 years could only send confidence levels up in Libya .We have all seen extensive footage on foreign TV channels of the capture of Gaddafi and his killing in his hometown of Sirte.
One of his admirers and friends Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi used a Latin phrase to comment on his death, saying that everything in this world is transitory: “Sic transit gloria mundi”, (So the glory of this world passes away). Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, British Prime Minister David Cameron said: “I think today is a day to remember all of Colonel Gaddafi’s victims, from those who died in connection with the Pan-Am flight over Lockerbie to Yvonne Fletcher in a London street and obviously all the victims of IRA terrorism who died through the use of Libyan Semtex.” President Barack Obama sounded more down to earth, when he simply said to the Libyan people: “You have won your revolution”.
Some people are worried that Gaddafi will be symbolised as a martyr among his followers but, quite honestly, anyone mourning the end of the tyrant obviously had the luxury of living in the good books of the regime all their lives. They would quickly have changed their attitude, had their husband, father, mother, brother, sister, son or daughter been a victim of his regime. Anyone who defied Muammar Gaddafi was called a “rat” by the dictator during his 42 years of unopposed power. He also besmirched his opponents as “cockroaches” but in the final hour of his death, he was found among those very creatures – cowering in a storm drain full of filth. The events that led to the death of Gaddafi (who had vowed to go down fighting) were recorded on amateur video, which showed him, covered in blood, staggering under blows from armed men – apparently NTC fighters.
Another video showed his lifeless body being rolled over on the pavement, stripped to the waist and with blood oozing from his head. Such utter humiliation and inhumane treatment of a man who had ruled as a pseudo sovereign saw TV viewers watching his mutilated body being paraded on a car through Misrata.
As was to be expected, there has been jubilation in the streets reminiscent of the fall of Saddam Hussein in Baghdad. Many agree that Gaddafi’s megalomania surpassed even that of Saddam Hussein, and his eccentricities were legendary – starting with his protection by a troupe of all-female bodyguards, his blonde Ukrainian nurse and his desire to sleep in a tent on official visits to Paris and Rome. These may now look simply ridiculous, but he controlled the oil taps, and that was all it took for the Western world to take him seriously as many – including former British Prime Minister Tony Blair – put up with his risible antics as long as the oil flowed. It is easy – now that he has been removed – for double-faced commentators who benefited from his regime to call him a pariah. Nothing stopped Gaddafi’s antics, not even sanctions, when he was linked to the 1988 Lockerbie bombing that killed 270 American people.
Whatever his misdemeanours, there was one thing for which he deserves credit: he kept the warring tribal factions together. Now he is gone, the glue that held together the alliance of such tribes (especially the foul-mouthed Benghazi tribes) may come unstuck. Gaddafi’s demise has certainly created a political vacuum as in the current absence of any other organised political institutions, it is vital that there is leadership to oversee crucial elements of the transition. He was smart enough to keep Libyans guessing about what would come next and he ruled with an iron fist, disposing of any dissidents. His strategy included the banning of political parties and the holding of elections, and he naturally forcibly dealt with any resistance from the militia.
Who will fill the void left by such a vilified ruler? Nobody knows .In recent weeks, Tripoli has seen an apparent competition for the title of top militia in the capital, where the many armed groups now exercising authority in the city portrayed themselves as the sole legitimate security force. During a visit to Libya last month, US Republican senator John McCain urged the NTC to move quickly to get the armed groups under their control. Who will be in charge of demilitarising the various rebels? Can the leadership of the National Transitional Council (NTC) heal the country’s deep wounds and soothe the hurt suffered by people who, naturally, want to take revenge and settle scores with Gaddafi’s coterie of loyalists, who lined their pockets with millions from underhand deals and lived in luxury?
But one may well ask: what is the NTC? It is composed of two key ideological and religious elements: the upper-crust strata of Libya’s relatively secular society and Libyan democratic nationals united with defecting military officers on the one hand, and relatively hard-line Islamists who were based in Benghazi and who were historically the foundation of Gaddafi’s Libyan opposition. Some of these Benghazi-based Gaddafi opponents were once affiliated with, or even members of, the extremist Libyan Fighting Group – a franchise cell once affiliated with Al Qaeda and its Algerian offshoot, The Armed Islamic Group. The Islamist-oriented elements of the NTC, of course, also have to reconcile themselves to elect a more representative post-Gaddafi government structure, which may serve to dilute their role in the long run. With over 140 tribes, could Libya slip into the abyss of civil conflict?
In the current post-Gaddafi euphoria, there may be a temporary feeling of unification but scraping the surface one discovers that Libya is a much divided nation – all the more so now that the lid has been blown off Gaddafi’s tyrannical dictatorship. There is a real danger that the temporary alliance that formed the backbone of the rebel leadership will fracture, perhaps along tribal or religious lines, as competing tribes try to cut their own deals to gain influence and assert control over Libya’s all-important petroleum resources. To what extent the NTC will remain focused and united will depend greatly on the leadership of its respected chair, former Libyan Justice Minister Mustafa Abdel-Jalil.
Will such a mix of different ideologists within the NTC ever make the perfect team to unite the country? Again, it could be said that reconciliation will not be easy, considering that the revolutionary forces are an unruly mix of militias from Libya’s major cities with obvious differences of opinion over who takes charge. Revolutionaries from Tripoli, Misrata and Benghazi have exchanged accusations that each is trying to dominate the new rule. This is not to forget Islamic fundamentalists, who have taken an increasingly prominent role, pushing for some form of Islamic state in Libya and thereby causing friction with the more secular leaders. As was to be expected, they have already insisted that Sharia must be the exclusive law in the new Constitution. In addition, there are bound to be recriminations in Tripoli against Gaddafi loyalists who face the prospect of instant mob justice. Moreover, there are reportedly hundreds, if not thousands, of forces and citizens of Tripoli residually loyal to Gaddafi, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that bloody street-to-street fighting may break out. Trying to convince these thousands of ex-Gaddafi functionaries to change their loyalty may be tricky and the purists advise against rushing the transition, as this may lead to needless conflict that could further destroy the capital and dramatically increase the number of civilian casualties.
Another issue is the question of who will issue new visas and re-employ the thousands of sub-Saharan, Egyptian, Sudanese and Chinese migrant workers who fled Libya during the revolution.
What started as the Jasmine revolution in Tunisia has spread into Libya and the Middle East and has ignited the torch of protest in countries such as Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Morocco and Bahrain. With the downfall of Ben Ali, Mubarak and now Gaddafi, many are wondering if a similar fate awaits Syria’s Bashar Assad and Yemen’s Ali Abdullah Saleh – two leaders clinging to power in the face of long-running uprisings. For the millions of Arabs yearning for freedom, democracy and new leadership, the death of one of the region’s most brutal dictators will likely inspire and invigorate the movement for change.
Jubilant Libyans poured into Tripoli’s Martyrs’ Square, chanting “Syria! Syria!” – urging the Syrian opposition on to victory.
To conclude, Libya’s vast oil wealth opened many doors for Gaddafi and he succeeded in persuading world dignitaries to pay him unreserved homage. But how the mighty have fallen! Now the NTC should be given every assistance by Nato countries (among others) to help it work out a credible plan for a post-Gaddafi Libya and – in the near future – help it become a democratic Muslim country governed by the rule of law.
George Mangion is a partner in PKF Malta, an audit and
business advisory firm.
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