While Libyans have not had a taste of democracy for almost half a century – which means that so far it is something completely alien to all those who may be 45 years old and under – in Tunisia’s case after years of oppressive dictatorship, the people could hopefully be already making their first steps towards the eventual fulfilment of their Arab Spring

It was a positive development that the first free elections in Tunisia were held at the same time that the Libyan people declared their liberation. But in both cases, it is now that the hard work begins, possibly in Libya even more so than in Tunisia itself.

In the case of the Libyans, while the daunting task of organising their first free election for more than four decades might seem difficult indeed, one cannot isolate such a mammoth task from the various tribal, Islamist and religious groupings and undercurrents at play.

On the other hand while Tunisia will still be walking a fine line and tightrope in the coming months, the chips seem to be loaded in their favour.

Not only did this small neighbour country trigger the Arab Spring first, but they might also be the first to manage the transition to full democracy first too.

No matter how autocratic their leadership might have been and all pervasive prison tortures and repression internally, in spite of the social divide, they had a far stronger secular tradition than most other neighbours. This apart, women rights were much more to the fore than elsewhere. Their strong links with Western countries like France and their long-standing place on the map as a safe tourist destination seemed to have made them more malleable and prone to change with relative ease than others. The Ennahda party is nothing short of historic while it is equally interesting to note their claim that they have modelled themselves on the governing AK party in Turkey, which happens to be another Muslim majority country which has remained a secular state.

As for Libya, while some think that the 2013 deadline for elections might sound over-ambitious, others contend that election in that particular year to complete a would-be transition to democracy could be too slow for some. Others have even commented that this could fuel political uncertainty further.

If Tunisia will succeed first in spite of its size, it will have sent signals right across the whole Arab world due to the symbolism of its own success story.

The Arab world has been craving for a model for change for years but on the other hand, anyone expecting to apply a one size fits all approach will be naïve and unrealistic.

This reminds me of those craving to apply the Westminster model overnight in Libya!

Algeria’s future role in the change process in Libya and Tunisia is also definitely worth monitoring and watching closely.

I believe Tunisia can make it because in spite of the pockets of poverty in various areas, compared to other neighbour states, they always had a rather sizeable middle class while being in the main part ethnically homogeneous.

Their proximity to the EU as well as to some of its leading member states had helped and might help in future although some cynically claim that those who came first to the rescue of the Libyans were the last to ditch the Ben Ali regime.

But that is realpolitik.

The main difference that I also see between the Islamist movements in the two countries is that while in Tunisia the once banned party which has been evidently the best organised throughout the campaign was mainly a victim of internal repression, in the case of the Islamists heading the security of Tripoli (one-third of the whole Libyan population) we are talking about people who were not only victims of Gaddafi, but who were also subjected to renditions by some of the same countries that were more recently supportive of the Arab Spring in Libya itself.

Following a Facebook comment I recently made congratulating the Tunisian people on the exemplary manner in which their electoral process was conducted, I could tell from the genuine feedback that my comment generated, that the mere notion of the word Islam fuelled anxiety, tension and unease among many other genuine Facebook ‘friends’.

While some tend to claim that Islamism might always start off gradually, on the other hand the moderate way in which it was applied in Turkey showed that it can and does work, while leaving enough space and room for private initiative, entrepreneurship and a fair share of what we perceive as conventional civil rights.

I tend to agree with those who have described goings on in Tunisia and Libya as books that are still being written where no one knows how they are going to end.

But as far as Tunisia is concerned I think that the healthy conduct of the elections and the diverse levels of support garnered by certain political movements are already indicative of the way the winds of change are likely to be blowing.

Al Ghannouchi had preached for more than three decades in Tunisia that pluralism, democracy and Islam can be harmonious.

Whether they will be on a country-specific basis is something I augur but will not dare predict in these early stages.

What tends to shock me is the gullibility of certain Maltese people.

Last week, I commented about those who were misled by government into thinking (at least up to the 21 September celebrations) that one could almost hop on a flight to Tripoli and come back with a business contract in hand when by the time of writing Air Malta is not even flying to Tripoli yet.

We are now experiencing something similar regarding Islamic finance.

Having been strongly supportive of this financial vehicle, so much so that I was instrumental in including it as a firm proposal in the PL’s 2008 election manifesto’s foreign policy chapter, I still think the overnight euphoria on Islamic finance in Libya is misplaced, given the state of flux in that country.

It was evidently triggered by the fact that suddenly Islamist forces were known to have come to the fore both there and in Tunisia when the relevant structures have not even been set up or fallen into place yet.

What obviously set the juices flowing was the declaration by transitional leader Jalil that new banks in Libya would be based and or established on banking principles which comply with Islam’s ban on interest and speculation.

As an eminent promoter of Islamic Finance in Malta recently remarked, it is too early to determine the implications of it all at this stage, particularly since it all depends whether a dual system of banking will be allowed in Libya.

But even before we get to that stage, Libya still needs to go through a confidence and institution building stage and process and the details can only follow later.

At this stage I find it nothing short of speculative and premature to stay wasting one’s efforts arguing whether one needs to take Sharia-compliant systems into account, when it comes to joint ventures and co-mingling of funds.

While I agree that Maltese entrepreneurs need to be more culture conscious as suggested and aware of what can and cannot be proposed, I think that at this stage Libya must first get its act together in the sense that it first needs to have a government, that sets out its future roadmaps, strategy and way of doing business as well as the economic model that will actually be adopted.

The rest will come later.

The transitional Libyan leader’s subsequent efforts to seek to calm the West on Sharia fears were positive and welcome, but the way forward can only be determined once Libya subjects itself to a reality check. Which I am sure that it will, given all the right intentions of many friends and allies to see it on the long abandoned road of progress and recovery.

My only suggestion at this stage is that while we should support the change process in these countries to the hilt, at the same time we must also strongly endeavour to get our own priorities right without letting idealism to get in the way of realpolitik and a fair and objective assessment of developments happening on the ground in both Libya and Tunisia, and beyond – particularly in the other Maghreb countries.

The real test is what will happen in the coming months; particularly in the even more delicate and sensitive next few weeks.

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Leo Brincat is the Shadow Minister for the Environment, Sustainable Development & Climate Change