Could the great democratic reform wave sweep through Russia next? If the current swell of anti-government activity continues, it could well be so.
Following last week’s elections in which Vladimir Putin’s party took a hefty blow at the polls, people have taken to the streets in protest. Just like in other countries around the world, the people of Russia are demanding change. The Russia situation is strange. It is not like Gaddafi’s Libya or Syria where authoritarian regimes bully and bludgeon their people into submission through crackdowns and abductions. Russian people are ‘sort of’ free, but their lives are in the hand of the political ruling class. Dissent is not tolerated and people are made to live by the rules. But there is now a growing movement which wants to see change. Perhaps inspired by other great protest movements around the world, Russians are gathering momentum and have planned a rally for tomorrow, despite the announcement that thousands of police, security and army personnel will be on the ground on the day.
Meanwhile, Mr Putin has strongly criticised US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, accusing her of encouraging and funding Russians protesting election fraud. In the same breath, he warned of a wider crackdown on dissent. Mr Putin said that by describing Russia’s parliamentary election as rigged, Mrs Clinton “gave a signal” to his opponents.
“They heard this signal and with the support of the US State Department began their active work,” said the Russian President on television.
There is some heavy posturing going on and it shows that the US’ relations with the Kremlin, seem to be getting frostier. Mrs Clinton’s remarks were indeed scathing, saying “Russian voters deserve a full investigation of electoral fraud and manipulation”.
This week saw some of the biggest and most sustained protests Russia has faced in years, and police have detained hundreds of protesters. And thousands more are expected to join protests in Moscow and other cities tomorrow.
Putin’s United Russia party barely held onto its majority in parliament, with official results giving it about 50% of the vote, down from 64% four years ago. But the fraud allegations indicate that support for United Russia was even lower than that, and Russians appear to be growing tired of Putin and his party after nearly 12 years in office.
Putin has been shaken by the outburst of public anger. And he has ratcheted up the rhetoric on live television, saying: “We are the largest nuclear power and our partners have certain concerns and shake us so that we don’t forget who is the master of this planet, so that we remain obedient and feel that they have leverage to influence us within our own country.”
He said “especially unacceptable is the infusion of foreign money into the electoral process”.
Mrs Clinton defended her criticism of the elections, saying she was expressing concerns the US thought were well-founded. But the leverage in Russia lies right with Putin’s party. Russia’s only independent election monitoring group, which is supported by grants from the United States and European governments, has come under heavy official pressure in recent weeks.
Opposition groups have called for a mass protest near the Kremlin tomorrow. More than 28,000 people have now signed up to a Facebook page on the protest. Confrontation seems certain. It is now a question of whether this will spiral out of control or not.