Last week, I attempted a review of the events that took place over the course of this year. Yet still, even with only one day left in 2011, it remains too soon to determine what actually happened in what many have labelled Europe’s ‘annus horribilis’

(many gave a similar label to 2010)

We know what happened, but we can’t say for certain what the critical events were. In many cases, we can’t yet gauge their relevance and their ultimate impact on our lives.

In this way, forecasting the changes that the new year may bring depends largely on what we think were the most important events of this year. Of course, in the same way that a farmer will find wild flowers and weeds when he returns to reap what he sowed the previous year, 2012 is likely to bring changes that no one could ever have predicted.

Who could have foreseen the deaths of Muammar Gaddafi, Kim Jong Il, Vaclav Havel, or the thousands who died in Japan’s nightmarish disaster? Other deaths are predictable and perhaps more tragic for it: Like the untold numbers who never make the crossing from North Africa to Southern Europe, or the millions who lose their lives every year to preventable diseases. It is terrible indeed to think that the one thing we can be certain of in 2012 is that people will continue to die in other continents of diseases that were eradicated generations ago in Europe.

My generation has a more or less unshakeable belief in progress: We believe that things can only improve. And things have improved dramatically – at least in Malta, and in my own lifetime. Perhaps it is for this reason that I believe that 2012 will be better than 2011, as this year was better than the last. But today’s younger generation are uncharacteristically less susceptible to the panacea of optimism. Globally, they have seen old problems remain unattended to and new problems emerge to shake their prospects.

Malta thankfully remains largely unaffected by the negative trends of this year – indeed, we have much to look forward to in the political and, eventually, economic transformation of our southern neighbourhood. As the falling unemployment rate indicates, our youth are better placed to find work this year than they were last year and tourism, still the bedrock of our economy, remains healthy. Unfortunately, this remains an exceptional situation in comparison to much of the rest of Europe and Maltese people cannot but help looking on with apprehension as hitherto healthy economies fell so far, so fast.

But it would be wishful thinking – not optimism – to believe that we will remain unaffected should Europe’s economic travails worsen in the New Year. The main difference between those countries that were racked by debt crises and those that managed to keep above water was the government they had in power preceding and during the crisis. On this count, we were among the fortunate ones. But if the European debt crisis continues to fetter growth we too will be affected. Less by a dramatic assault by financial markets on Maltese government bonds than by the corrosive effects on our economy of a prolonged recession in our main markets.

At least for us, then, one of the most important events of this year was the ‘fiscal compact’ reached among 26 out of the 27 governments of the European Union. And one of the things we should be most concerned about over the course of the new year is whether this deal, reached only a few weeks before Christmas, will change the course of Europe’s recent economic history. No one can say this for certain. It is impossible to know, beyond the theoretical, whether the agreement will be effective – certainly before this year is out and perhaps even before the end of next year.

And when we do know, perhaps we will have to revisit our impressions of 2011 and decide whether it was the year we saved ourselves from economic ignominy or simply the year history continued to tread roughshod on its interminable path over our best-laid plans. But we have shown, particularly in Europe, our ability to grow stronger in the wake of successive crises. I believe that the results of the work put in by our leadership over the course of this year and sacrifices made by workers throughout much of Europe will prove this to be true once again.

On that positive note, I wish you all a Happy New Year.