Hungary, a country that joined the European Union alongside Malta eight years ago, is in crisis. Not only is its economy in poor shape and its borrowing costs soaring, but the country also happens to be enduring a bona fide political crisis.
These twin crises have seen the ruling party, which was elected in 2010 with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, see its popular support evaporate. A recent survey finds that only 16% of voters now support the government, compared to a staggering 84% when the ruling party was elected. Patience in Brussels has now all but run dry with the Hungarian Prime Minister.
It is easy to dismiss Hungary as an exceptional case, with little comparative value, as the government itself has done. But events in Hungary highlight an important reality. They demonstrate in spectacular fashion the extent to which national politicians can still drive a stable economy wildly off course, even within the guiding structures of European Union membership. Hungary, in this way, serves as a striking plea against throwing caution to the wind when it comes to taking political decisions in the current economic climate.
Hungary was not always like this. After suffering from a spendthrift (and notoriously deceitful) socialist administration, the country enjoyed a period of economic stability. A technocratic government, much like the current Italian arrangement, brought the economy under control and stabilised the country’s debt and deficit, showing how sound economic governance and not the whims of bond markets is the most important factor in keeping an economy above water in the current economic climate.
With a political change, however, Hungary’s economic circumstances also changed. After a year or so of relatively sound economic governance and promises to rein in spending, the government reversed all progress for the sake of judicial reforms and a controversial new Constitution – triggering widespread protests and sending shockwaves of insecurity through markets. And, most recently, a proposed reform of the governing structure of the Hungarian Central Bank, which could give the Prime Minister more control over its decisions, has dealt the death blow to a €20 billion IMF/EU loan.
Hungary’s borrowing costs have now soared to an average of almost 10% on its 10-year bonds – for the sake of comparison, our own borrowing costs are less than half the Hungarian rate. Alongside the collapse of negotiations on the IMF/EU loan, all three of the major credit rating agencies have downgraded Hungary’s sovereign debt to below investment grade, or ‘junk’ status, which will likely drive up borrowing costs even further.
Yet still, it is not only what the Hungarian government is doing that has brought these consequences to bear on the country. It is also what it is not doing. Busy drafting a new Constitution and meddling with the judiciary, the government has forgotten the need to govern its economy and control its spending. It has failed to bring its deficit to below the 3% threshold and has seen its public debt rise to 82%, above the 60% mark. All this while growth and unemployment figures remain poor.
The value of the forint has also fallen, eroding the purchasing power of Hungarian citizens. Not forming part of the eurozone, however, may be a good thing for the government, at least in the short run. Already as it is, Economic Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn has threatened the country with a cut in its structural funds allocation if it doesn’t take action to correct its deficit. In the eurozone, the government would now be facing the prospect of financial sanctions.
These myriad consequences raining down on the country’s economy are less to do with wanton market forces than with the economic irresponsibility of the country’s government. For Malta, the exact reverse is true. Regional economic and political trends over the last few years have generally been adverse to our economic interests. Our largest trading partners, Britain and Italy, were amongst the worst hit by the crisis. Our southern markets in North Africa have also dried up due to the political upheaval – though the prospects are promising.
Instead, we have so far been among the least affected in Europe by the crisis. Not only that, but unemployment has continued to fall, tourism has increased, and growth remains healthy, particularly given the circumstances. And proving this, our economy and budget have just been given a clean bill of health by the European Commission. These are not the consequences of potluck, but the results of a responsible government. Similarly, the blame for events in Hungary falls squarely on the shoulders of the country’s increasingly irresponsible administration. At least, if nothing else, the current travails of the Hungarian people demonstrate to us all the great benefit of having a government which knows what it’s doing.
David Casa is a Nationalist MEP