The Republican Party’s steadily rightward drift, exemplified by the tea party movement’s muscle, keeps hitting a paradox every four years that frustrates social conservatives: Presidential primaries.
For all its success in congressional races, the Republican Party’s right wing repeatedly has failed to unite behind a “movement conservative” to be the party’s White House nominee. It happened in 2008 with John McCain, and in 1996 with Bob Dole.
Now social conservatives fear it’s happening again in South Carolina, virtually the heartland of the tea party, which advocates limited government, deep government spending cuts and lower taxes. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is running strong in polls there, threatening to sweep the year’s first three Republican contests and all but lock up the nomination in today’s primary.
More than 100 evangelical and social conservative leaders convened last weekend in Texas, hoping to slow Romney’s march by backing former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum. But they were far from unanimous, and many party activists feel the effort was too weak and too late.
The loose-knit group’s lack of cohesion – underscored on Monday when some members announced their strong support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich – illustrates the hard right’s historic difficulty in coalescing early behind one strong contender.
Romney, meanwhile, caught a break on Monday. Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, widely seen as competing with Romney for moderate-conservatives’ votes, dropped out and endorsed the front-runner.
Romney began the contest as the Republican establishment’s favourite, running a steady but unspectacular campaign while rivals on his right soared and crashed. Rep. Michele Bachmann and businessman Herman Cain eventually dropped out. Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin never got in. Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry are hanging on, but they have fallen dramatically from their respective high points of last year.
Santorum, virtually an afterthought in the race until Christmas, may have the best chance of becoming the non-Romney candidate. But he lags far behind Romney in money, organisation and experience.
There are several explanations, perhaps none of which will satisfy people who want an unabashed, staunch social and fiscal conservative as president.
The most benign explanation is that Republicans are so intent on ousting President Barack Obama that they will settle for a far-from-pure conservative nominee and rally around him this fall. Indeed, Republican polls show Romney’s perceived “electability” as one his greatest assets.
In 2008, many on the Republican right disliked McCain, the Arizona senator who championed campaign finance limits and challenged other conservative orthodoxies. But he easily passed Baptist minister and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the 2008 lead-off Iowa caucuses.
George W. Bush ran as a “compassionate conservative” in 2000, although he governed more to the right, especially on military matters.
If any state would reject Romney’s moderate style and history of supporting abortion rights and gun control, South Carolina would be near the top. The state’s congressional delegation includes some of the nation’s most prominent tea party advocates.
Yet Romney appears to be coasting, wooing another tea party favourite, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, to his side. Haley constantly emphasises the need to oust Obama. Romney, she tells South Carolina Republicans, is the man to do it.