After a three-year vacuum
The writ announcing local council elections on 10 March was published on Thursday. As scheduled in the 2009 reform, there will be elections in 34 localities this year, to which one must add Sliema after the local council there was dissolved last month. Stephen Calleja takes a look at the results of the last elections in these localities in view of what could happen next month
If the number of votes in next month’s local council elections were to be the same as those obtained in the last rounds held in 2007 and 2008, then the Labour Party would win by roughly 6,600 votes.
But there’s a hitch.
The Sliema local council will be included in the coming batch of elections on 10 March after its dissolution and, being a Nationalist Party stronghold, that 6,600 margin – again based on the last election in Sliema – could be cut down by more than half, effectively narrowing the loss for the party in government.
These are, of course, projections based on past results and should only be taken as such. No election is like any other, and history teaches us that the electorate is swayed one way or another in a week, let alone over a period spanning four to five years.
This is the time difference between the last round of local council elections held in the localities where people will be asked to cast their preference to elect their new council next month. And many things have happened since then, including the fact that the Sliema local council was hit by a string of events involving a number of councillors and the former mayor that will surely impinge on the way residents think.
Some have said that the council could have carried on for another year, adding that this was just a move to please the Nationalist Party. But there could be no argument against the dissolution of the Sliema council – it started on the wrong foot, matters became worse as time went by, and it had become an example of what local councils should never be.
Sliema was supposed to have its election with another 33 councils next year, but an election will be held in this round, bringing the total of localities to have an election to 35.
Local council elections are a completely different ball game to a general election. But this year’s local elections can generate more attention for two reasons – the first is that there has been an upsurge in political interest following the developments we had since the start of the year (although, as said, there is a great difference between local and national polls); and, secondly, no local elections have been held for three years, and the anticipation is therefore higher than normal.
Reform
Local council elections used to be held every year, with the 68 councils divided into three batches. But the 2009 reform resulted in changes that will eventually lead to a situation in which elections are held every two years, with the term in office of local councils extended from three to four years. The reform led a to a three-year period in which no elections were held.
The local councils elected next month will serve only for three years however, and it will only be in 2015 that the reform is completed, and it’s only from that year onwards that elections will start to be held on every odd year.
It must also be remembered that the voter turnout for local council elections is lower than for general elections. Since local councils were introduced in 1993, there have been several local elections on their own, and the turnout was always lower than when local elections were linked to either a referendum or a national election.
A quick look at the last round of elections in the councils scheduled for election this year (excluding Sliema) gives the Labour Party a 6,648 advantage (59,189 votes for Labour against the PN’s 52,541). With Sliema included, the difference would decrease to just 3,274 votes, effectively giving Labour a smaller victory.
The inclusion of Sliema – following the dissolution of the present council – has been seen in some quarters as one way to mitigate the Nationalist Party’s defeat in local council elections, a move they described as similar to the non-elections in Marsa and Zejtun a few years back.
In 2005, at the last minute, the Nationalist Party had withdrawn candidates from these two localities to give Labour a walkover. At that point there was no need for an election to be held because the number of candidates was equal to the number of councillors’ seats available. This meant that there was no election in two Labour strongholds, ultimately reducing the Labour Party’s victory in terms of votes obtained.
With Sliema being a traditional Nationalist stronghold, including it in these elections has been interpreted as a move to minimise the PN’s defeat. Of course, there are arguments to the contrary, because in reality there was no way the Sliema council could have continued to function in the state it was in. Perhaps the council should have been dissolved even earlier than last month, given what happened.
Number of councillors
Without Sliema, the number of councillors elected at the last round numbered 114 for Labour and 101 for the PN, a difference of 13. With Sliema, again taking the last election, the margin drops to eight as Labour elected 117 councillors and the PN 109. It must be pointed out that these numbers take into account the councillors elected on behalf of political parties on the day the election was held – it does not consider the resignation of councillors from their political parties to continue serving as independent councillors during the term in office.
What must also be considered this time round is that, due to population changes, the number of councillors to be elected will increase by 10.
In six localities, the number of councillors will increase by two because the population has expanded since the last election – in Xaghra the number of councillors will rise from five to seven, in St Julian’s, Swieqi and Attard it will go up from seven to nine, in Zurrieq from nine to 11 and in St Paul’s Bay from 11 to 13, making it the biggest council alongside Birkirkara.
Conversely, the number of councillors to be elected in Hamrun will go down from nine to seven because of a decrease in the population.
Majorities
The Labour Party has a majority in 18 of the 35 councils where elections will be held, while the Nationalist Party has a majority in 16 (including Sliema). In the other council, Floriana, the two parties have two councillors each while the fifth member is an independent candidate.
Expectations
It is a foregone conclusion that Labour will win majorities in its strongholds such as Vittoriosa, Senglea, Qormi, Birzebbuga, Marsa, Marsaxlokk, Luqa, Paola and Santa Lucija. It is also a foregone conclusion that the Nationalist Party will win majorities in places such as Attard, Balzan, St Julian’s, St Paul’s Bay, Swieqi and most Gozitan localities.
But there are then a number of councils where the battle for leadership – considering that the position of mayor is taken by the candidate who has the highest number of votes among candidates of the winning party – will be more keenly contested.
Of these, Mosta is a particular case since the majority there has swayed from one party to another since 1993 and, in the current term, the locality, which has a Labour-led council, has not been in the news for positive reasons. The PN will be doing its best to regain majority in that locality this time round.
Councils like Siggiewi, Zebbug (Malta), Safi and Hamrun should also grab more attention than others, as the difference between the parties is quite narrow.
Political parties
The Labour Party has already started its campaign. This week, Labour leader Joseph Muscat visited Hamrun, Dingli and Gzira, three localities that have been led by a Labour council.
His visits were not without controversy, as Nationalist councillors were not invited to the events, and even one Labour MP, Luciano Busuttil, a former Hamrun mayor, complained that he had not been invited to an event in the locality.
The Nationalist Party, commenting on these activities through its media, said that Labour is riding on projects that were carried out by the councils in conjunction with the government for partisan purposes.
For its part, the PN has so far kept quiet on the local councils front. No campaign has been launched and no activities have been held.
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