It is useless speculating about election dates, regardless of how unsustainable the local economic situation might have become as well as overall public sentiment

All those who may think that the PN will give in to local public sentiment as the economic uncertainty worsens must be either naïve or gullible or even worse – both. When the PN parliamentary group met in early January to explore ways out of the present crisis their foremost concern was not the national interest. But from what I have been told by various insiders their main preoccupation was how to ensure that the party interest would be best secured and safeguarded.

It is common knowledge that the PN strategy group has reportedly long given Gonzi two pieces of advice.

The first is that under no circumstance should he risk calling a vote of confidence himself. That is, at a parliamentary level.

And even more importantly, that they have long been and – are still – continuing to advise him that this is not the right time for the PN (not the country) to have an early election. Gonzi himself echoed such sentiments last Sunday.

That even independent newspapers have formed a chorus line urging them to do what is best for the country as well as that the general feeling is that a general election is what is best under present circumstances is for the strategy group a mere side issue – something to take note of but callously pass for filing.

The strategy group’s primary objective is not that of falling in line with EU budgetary obligations or honouring various EU commitments in a number of key socio-economic and environmental sectors, but something far simpler than that: To earn themselves enough time and breathing space to use their powers of incumbency to the maximum.

But the Nationalists seem to have made one serious miscalculation… that the longer they cling to power, the more they are likely to see their electoral base wilt away. The signs are already evident.

Farcical as it may sound, Gonzi’s self-indulgent decision to submit himself to a leadership test and secret ballot when it has long been a foregone conclusion that this will offer no solution to the political crisis, still has a silver lining for the PN.

While local elections are important and a good litmus test, were the PL to judge its successes by local councils criteria, we should have been long in government for the last 15 years or so.

Nevertheless something tells me that this time round the PN will try to manoeuvre the local elections to try and boost their morale in the run-up to an eventual general election.

During the past weeks we have had various reports on the following lines:

• That Arms Ltd have been asked to adopt a softer line before suspending electricity services in many households.

• That various government entities are engaging personnel to offer their services to them on a ‘self-employed’ basis even if working normal hours – these range from lawyers to minor staff

• That the Foreign Office has been approving various appointments ranging from ambassadorial posts, reconfirmation of posts, extensions of service, and other related promotions.

• That the Mepa permitting process has been suddenly speeded up especially as far as building permits are concerned

• That government has already committed itself to subsidise cheap Air Malta flights come election time to maximise the number of voters living abroad but still forming part of the electoral register.

• That there is no end in sight to solving the long overdue ID Cards issue.

Meanwhile various eminent Nationalist spokespersons and candidates have been busy trying to instill the fear factor among their constituents against a would-be PL administration, rather than embarking on futile confidence building exercises that could favour their own party. The PM himself adopted such a line of ‘attack’ in Gozo last Sunday.

Various Nationalist MPs and candidates continue to step up their house visits, while certain key ministers continue to launch a number of projects on plan, in spite of Gonzi’s fake reassurance that the country is not in an election mode.

Meanwhile many diplomats are known to be amazed and confused at the surreal atmosphere that is prevailing in the local political situation right now.

Although it still remains uncertain how Franco Debono might vote in the coming days or months, the PN seem to have given up on exercising any undue pressure on him to give up his parliamentary seat and have him replaced with a new MP who will be guaranteed to toe the party line.

Where Gonzi risks getting his fingers burnt inadvertently is regarding the timing of the general elections, even if these were to be set according to strictly partisan criteria.

Until a few months ago one would have thought that Debono’s ‘nuisance’ value would have irked a number of Nationalists and helped Gonzi win back a fair measure of support, particularly given the international crisis.

But now that Gonzi and his clan and strategy team have been making it so obvious that their sole concern is party and personal political survival their egoism is shining through: With the consequence that a number of disillusioned Nationalist and floating voters are becoming even more disgruntled as a result of the arrogance and self-interest of the GonziPN clan.

Some people close to the inner circles of the PN’s highest hierarchy have told me that Gonzi might be still banking on expecting Debono to shut up if Gonzi will as expected secure an overwhelming vote of support when/if re-elected party leader.

But even that is an issue that will keep everyone – including the country itself – guessing. What is certain is that Gonzi is fast running out of viable options.

I have met many Nationalist constituents during house visits who simply cannot understand the logic of their leader embarking on a leadership contest when nobody in the party itself was questioning his leadership.

They themselves volunteered the information that this was nothing but a transparent ploy for Gonzi and the PN to win some more additional time.

While some have had no hesitation in stating openly – in spite of my being an MP from the ‘other’ party – that since it is most unlikely that the political uncertainty will go away, the best course of action would be for the country to go to the polls, at the very earliest.

The more the PN prolongs its stay, the more it might end up strengthening the PL’s hands by default, as the PN administration finds itself drawn more and more into a catch-22 situation.

Meanwhile there remains one big certainty. That the instability issue will continue to prevail – and if anything, get worse – the longer Gonzi and his clan cling to power.

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Leo Brincat is the Shadow Minister for the Environment, Sustainable Development & Climate Change