The Greek government has approved controversial austerity measures in a bid to prevent bankruptcy, leading to violent protests in which scores of protesters and police were injured.
The above statement could easily have been used in yesterday’s newspapers, but also on a number of occasions over the past two years. On a couple of occasions a more sombre headline was, regrettably, more appropriate, as four people died in two separate incidents.
But the apparent sense of déjà vu does raise a couple of obvious questions: Are the measures achieving what they set out to achieve, namely to get Greek finances back on track? Additionally, how far can people reasonably be pushed?
Other countries have expressed discontent at the slow pace of Greek reforms: Malta’s Finance Minister Tonio Fenech told this newspaper last week that Greece is yet to fully implement the measures it committed itself to when it received its first bailout, and is now seeking the second bailout package. He is not alone in expressing these concerns.
On the other hand, predicting the full effect of austerity measures is no easy task. They cut the government’s expenditure, true, but they also contribute to the contraction of an economy which has been in recession for years, thus reducing the country’s tax base at the same time.
That the problem was not addressed for far too long, as the country went through an economic boom fuelled through a government spending beyond its means, does not help matters. Its present debt levels, at around 160% of GDP, would be hard to sustain even in a strong economy, let alone one in a prolonged recession.
And that does not take the Greek people into account. It may be easy, at our end, to shake our heads and note how the country’s economy and standard of living was unacceptable.
But at the other end, the Greeks see how jobs have been lost, wages have been cut, and taxes have gone up. Perhaps a home loan, or tuition fees, just became a little too expensive to pay as a result. With no indication of an end in sight, frustration and even anger are understandable, even if the ensuing riots may be far from commendable.
Even the head of the IMF mission in Greece, Poul Thomsen, has conceded that the country is reaching the limit of what society can endure.
Regrettably, the sense of solidarity that is perhaps crucial in times of crisis is lacking in Greece, where tax evasion and corruption are problematic and estimated to cost the government some €13 billion in annual revenue. Addressing these could go a long way in addressing the country’s fiscal deficit.
So ultimately, what Greece needs is to completely transform its economy, a process which necessarily involves social and cultural upheaval and typically requires at least a generation, and to do so in a few years. In short, a revolutionary change: And doing so without provoking revolt will involve a Herculean effort.