People may have been taken in by the lull that followed Franco Debono’s abstention in the parliamentary confidence vote in the past weeks, and maybe by speculation that the Prime Minister intends to serve till the end of the legislature.

Maybe the Labour grassroots really expected the government to collapse at the vote, and, having been rebuffed, vented their anger on Franco Debono.

The government is still in power by Franco Debono’s placet and he can, at any time, pull the plug. Considering his mercurial and changeable character, that could happen at any time for the slightest or for no reason at all. So at any one point, he can still cause the government to collapse.

It is a safe bet to say that if anyone were to do it, only Dr Debono can, for the rest of the agitating backbenchers can grumble and bad-mouth the government and party leadership for all they’re worth but will not do anything more than that. Their political careers may be as shot as Franco’s but unlike him they are not ready to commit hara-kiri.

A cursory look at the social media and the blogs yesterday evidenced huge sarcasm on Dr Gonzi’s solitary candidacy and election (crowning may be the more appropriate word). But sarcasm and irony are a waste of time.

It is clear, very clear to all those who can consider things, that we are very close to hearing an election announcement. It is clear that Dr Gonzi and his party’s leadership would want to prolong this as much as they can, but it is equally absolutely clear they cannot, not even if Dr Debono acquiesces.

They would want to end the legislature as planned in around mid-2013 for most public works are planned to be well advanced to finish by then. The Renzo Piano City Gate and Opera House project seems to have fallen slightly backwards over the past weeks but it may soon pick up speed. It cannot be finished, however, before the year’s end. The same goes for the Barrakka Lift.

Obviously, being the one who had to take all kind of dirt on the Renzo Piano plan, Dr Gonzi is chary of leaving it to his successor to finish, fearing it can be left half-finished and a monument to his hubris. But he must have learnt that in politics nothing is assured, least of all your successor continuing to implement your plan.

The same may be said of the many road works around the island, though these do not have the emotive appeal of the City Gate project. Some roads are well on their way to being finished, such as the road leading to the airport, but others are still a long way off. More importantly for vote purposes, hard work over the past months has cut down on the number of residential streets still to be done.

Finishing the capital projects this government set such a store by is then only a minor part of the story. The government’s lifeline is more determined by Dr Debono than by these projects.

There are then other considerations that are even more important than Dr Debono, though obviously he is the man with his thumb in the dyke.

Let’s go by the one furthest away. I say this government will not willingly last past Budget Day.

First of all, by that time, October or November, it will be clear who is right, the government or the European Commission. The Commission said last week that Malta’s GDP will only grow by one per cent this year, less than the rate of inflation, rather than the 1.3 per cent growth predicted by the government. Minister Tonio Fenech rebutted that yesterday. This early in the year anyone can make any predictions, but by October or November it will be far more clear who is right.

It was only Eddie Fenech Adami who went to the country in October (1996) and look what happened to him! It later turned out that he too went so early because of bad financial figures and because he could not come up with a Budget unless it was one of austerity.

One other issue, which must be worrying heads at Castille, is what will happen, or can happen in the eurozone in the coming months. There is a crucial Ecofin meeting on Tuesday and a European Council (summit) later on this week. These two meetings should decide the second bailout for Greece in all details and thus stave off the danger of a Greek default before 20 March.

The danger is still there, notwithstanding the relentless optimism of the official speakers. Time and again these have exuded optimism at the end of one of the interminable summits, only for the markets to bring the hopes of an early exit from the crisis crashing down.

All the signs are the Greeks have been forced to subscribe to even more austerity, even more cuts, even more poverty but they will try to find a way out from so many austerity measures that the Commission has been practically forced to impose on a strict timetable or else no funds by 20 March. The alternative to this death by austerity is death by default, which will really, but really, push the country back to the war years or the Ottoman period.

Things are really looking up in the eurozone, but there are so many risks around it will only be a miracle if nothing happens over the coming months. The slightest hitch can upset all these plans. And Europe has still not found the overall solution that can turn the eurozone economy around. It is still in defensive, fire-fighting mode.

Now a government living a fragile existence from one month to the next, from one vote to the next, is in no way prepared to take any action that may be necessary to defend the country’s interest. The country needs a full-fledged government, not one on life-support.

But what makes me believe an election is round the corner, and as the heading says, more June than September, is the Air Malta issue.

Last week, the Commission published its response to the Air Malta recovery plan proposed by the airline and subscribed by the government. Wonder of wonders: not one paper or media house published the document until I published the lot in The Malta Business Weekly. All the media published were statements by Air Malta and by the ministry in reaction to a document to which the public had not been given access. So the public has a skewed view of the state of the matter.

In short, the Commission says it has serious doubts that the way forward, as proposed by the airline and recommended by the government, does not constitute State aid according to EU rules.

The Commission is now asking for feedback from anyone and then take its final decision. Whatever the minister’s reported optimism, we could still see another Malev in the making. (Over the past weeks, the Commission decided that the help given by Hungary to the state airline constituted State aid and ordered the airline to pay it back. The airline could not, and promptly folded, with Ryanair moving in to take its place).

Now as I see it, a canny government would prudently inquire what the Commission’s timeline is and call the election just before this decision is announced. To put a positive sheen to this, it would require a prime minister in full power to be able to rush to Brussels and negotiate the last card. To see it in a Machiavellian way, that is the best inheritance an outgoing government can leave to its successor.

There. You have the timeline. September is far away, and June is as near as can be. Only Alfred Sant held an election in September (and Dom Mintoff in 1976), but he held it then because he was forced to. The Maltese people do not take kindly to holding political meetings in the searing month of August when everyone should be at the seaside.

I also wonder why no one seems to be seeing the very evident signs that the election is very near.

First of all, Parliament is meeting in a way that defies logic. It is made to take up one law after another without any one being brought to conclusion, and vote. It is clear that the crucial votes are being bunched together so that they can be taken all in one day, which would then be the last day.

The country is now in pre-election mode regarding the 10 March local council elections, but all this preparation is masking the far more intricate planning for the general election. Templates are being drawn up, the logistics worked out, and the timetable only needs the actual date to be keyed in. It’s not just the blocks of concrete awaiting billboards that have been prepared.

The Prime Minister is probably waiting for the 10 March results but maybe will not wait that long especially if the private polls see PN cutting the PL lead. If the PL lead shows signs of resistance, the Prime Minister would be sorely tempted to try and delay things, but then other issues, as listed above, can crop up and make going to the country absolutely inevitable, in which case the PN would be fighting in the worst possible state.

As I said previously, yesterday’s vote was a waste of time. Perhaps it only masked, if it did, the preparations being made. Soon, very soon, we will be in the real thing.

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