Are the local council elections we had a few days ago more a victory for the Labour Party or a defeat for the Nationalist Party?

Which of these two is the greater?

On the one hand, the Nationalist Party lost 11,500 votes, which could either be yet another sign of bad times for a party that has been beleaguered by internal disputes, or simply an example of the disinterest shown by its supporters in local affairs, as they believe local councils have little or no impact on their everyday life.

On the other hand, the Labour Party was able to increase its share of votes from the previous election by just 150, and this at a time when a party in Opposition, given the government’s difficulties, should have had more appeal. Let us also not forget that Labour’s campaign focused on the leader (not local councils) and was similar to that of a general election, whereas the Nationalist Party opted for a low-key approach.

True, the Labour Party won last week’s local elections by a staggering margin, obtaining nearly 56 per cent of the votes cast against the 42% per cent picked up by the Nationalists. They won localities that were previously Nationalist strongholds, and earned more support in many more towns and villages.

But when the euphoria makes way for calmer consideration, can the Labour Party say it is happy that it maintained its base intact but so far has not been able to persuade disgruntled Nationalists to switch over to their side? What will these Nationalists do when the time comes to elect a government? Will they vote Labour? Will they stay at home to award a walk-over? Or will they return to their fold?

By just looking at the figures and the way people voted, it is clear that last week the Labour Party won by default, mostly because there were many Nationalists who decided not to exercise their right to elect their mayor and councillors. There were Labour supporters who did not vote as well, but it was in areas that are traditionally Nationalist that the largest chunk of the no-vote was registered: St Paul’s Bay, Swieqi, St Julian’s and Sliema.

These Nationalists could have opted out to send a strong message to their party, but they could have also chosen not to collect their voting card, or not visit the polling booth, because they are not interested in their local council, either because it has failed miserably in the past or because they are simply not bothered.

I do not think that the low turnout we experienced yesterday week – the lowest ever since the introduction of local councils in 1992 – will be repeated at the general election. When the time comes, we will have a voter turnout in excess of 90 per cent, as we normally do in this country.

Now, I ask again, will the Nationalists who stayed at home last week bring themselves to vote Labour to spite their own party, risk their future – and that of their sons and daughters – and throw the country into the hands of a party that has so far been unable to come up with one proposal? Will they stay at home or will they still believe that, in spite of the difficulties their party has faced, the PN is still the better option?

This is the question that the Labour Party needs to ask itself. Because it knows that its voter base is not enough to win the election, as experience in previous years has shown us. The Labour Party needs the votes of disgruntled Nationalists or, if you like, floating voters, to be able to clinch a victory.

It is with this in mind that the Labour Party has to plan its strategy in the next few weeks or months. Unless it manages to convince these voters that it can provide a better alternative, it can end up empty-handed once again.

Yes, there is a chance that it will win because many Nationalists will choose not to vote. Maybe, after all, this is Labour’s best bet, and this is perhaps why it has so far stayed away from sharing what it has in mind. Probably it knows that by saying nothing, it has a bigger opportunity of winning, whereas if it makes proposals – and they turn out to be something like the living wage or repeater class – it will push people back towards the Nationalist Party.

This could be Labour’s silent strategy – do nothing, say nothing, and win by default. The lower the turnout, the better the chances that Labour will win the general election, because a low turnout would mean that many Nationalists have stayed at home.

So far, it is clear that, despite what Joseph Muscat says about a moderate and progressive movement that welcomes everyone with open arms, the Labour Party is still not appealing to people on the other side of the political fence, except the few who see the PL as an opportunity.

This is a consolation for the PN, which knows that its supporters have not been swayed enough to bring themselves to vote Labour as yet. The most they have managed so far is not to vote. And this means that there is still time for the PN to build bridges with its own supporters.

At most, one year remains until the general election. There is ample time, but the PN cannot afford any more mistakes. From now onwards, it must appear committed and determined to translate the Prime Minister’s words of rapprochement into action.

Added to this, it must force mistakes from the Labour side, or else expose the PL’s inability to come up with decent proposals as a tactic used by it to win without having any idea how it will govern, once the celebrations are over.

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