Although the Syrian regime on Tuesday accepted a six-point plan for a ceasefire tabled by United Nations envoy Kofi Annan, the civilian bloodshed continues apparently unabated. And, as experience with the Libyan uprising has shown, any positive signals from a regime bent on remaining in power at seemingly any and all costs must be considered with a very healthy dose of scepticism.
It is also becoming blatantly apparent that, as was the case with Libya, coercive and concerted action by the international community may very well be the only way of bringing an end to the killing.
But, in the meantime, the number of civilian casualties and fatalities, continues to grow almost by the hour. The United Nations warned yesterday that a humanitarian assessment mission led by the Syrian government itself to the cities at the centre of the country’s uprising has found what it described as “significant needs” for medicines, food and other essential items.
If matters continue in the current trend, Malta may soon need to up the ante on the five containers of clothing, medicine and other supplies it sent off to refugees of the Syrian conflict who had fled to Jordan. If called to do so, the Maltese will certainly once again rise to the occasion.
At least 9,000 people are believed to have been killed since the Syrian uprising began last March, having started with mostly peaceful protests as part of the Arab Spring. It became militarised when the government sent in tanks, snipers and troops with machine guns to break up protests — a development that many opposition members say forced them to take up arms. The government still denies there is a popular uprising, saying the revolt is being driven by armed groups and others it calls terrorists.
But while the situation could very well develop into a fully-fledged civil war, there are other fears that the year-old conflict could exacerbate tensions in an already tense region of the world.
The last year aside, the Assad regime has been something of a stabilising force in the region, geographically and politically. It borders five other nations and controls water supplies to three of them - Iraq, Jordan and parts of Israel. The country has close ties to Iran and the Hezbollah in Lebanon – a country it controlled for decades and where it still holds a great amount of sway. And although Syria is officially at war with Israel, which has occupied Syria’s Golan Heights since 1967, the border has remained quiet under the Assad’s rule.
But this delicate balance could easily be upset should Syria, a country of 22 million people, fall into further disarray.
Add to the mix fears of the involvement of terrorist groups such al-Qaeda, which intelligence officials blame for several recent suicide bombings in Syria, and one can see why, over and above the horrendous ongoing bloodshed, the international community is desperate to diffuse the escalating situation.
One such attempt is Kofi Annan’s six-point plan that called for an immediate, two-hour halt in fighting every day to allow humanitarian access and medical evacuations. The plan also outlines a complete ceasefire, a further flung hope considering that Syria must first move its troops and equipment out of the cities and towns it is laying siege to.
But if the regime’s continued assaults on civilians after apparently accepting the plan is anything to go by, any such complete ceasefire appears to be no more than a pipe dream and it is becoming increasingly clear that nothing short of concrete, coercive and concerted action by the international community will make the regime cease and desist.