Analysts have said that the US is slowly but surely giving out more signals that outside military help is not an option for Syrian rebels.
As the truce continues to unravel and civilians continue to die, it is becoming increasingly clear that no one is going to dislodge Bashar Assad any time soon. Even appeals to his wife, by the wives of world leaders, seemed to have no effect as Syria’s army continued to pound residential areas and snipe at civilians.
Rebel forces are poorly armed and disorganised, many of the various splinters squabbling due to ethnic and sectarian divisions.
“We are at a crucial turning point,” US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said on Wednesday. “Either a United Nations-brokered ceasefire takes hold “or we see Assad squandering his last chance before additional measures have to be considered”.
Meanwhile, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he believes there is an opportunity for progress in Syria and recommended the Security Council approves a 300-strong UN observer mission. But that is hard to envisage given yesterday’s incidents where troops fired onto people as they tried to approach observers.
The United States backs the ceasefire between Assad’s forces and rebels, but the deal also represents recognition that Assad remains in control of the armed forces and holds the power to suspend attacks on civilians and rebels.
The week-old ceasefire was supposed to allow greater humanitarian and other relief to enter the country. But Syria has violated key provisions. Tanks, troops and widely feared plainclothes security agents continue to patrol the streets to deter anti-government protests.
US and EU officials regularly say Assad is no longer a legitimate leader, but they hold no direct leverage to make him leave, or even make him listen to international condemnation.
Surprisingly, some Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia and other wealthy Arab states pledged donations from a multimillion-dollar fund designed to prop up Syrian rebels and entice defections from Assad’s army. The US seized on the plan as a path forward even though it disagrees with Arab states that want to give weapons to the badly outgunned rebels, which seems to hint at the fact that it simply does not want to get its hands dirty.
There is no international mandate for forcibly removing Assad. Syria was never the outcast that Libya under Muammar Gaddafi became.
European countries are unlikely to get militarily involved without the United States, and Turkey has backed off from talk of creating buffer zones along the Syrian border. Any foreign military action could provoke anger from Russia and China, and open hostility from Iran.
The truth of it all is that the rebels are no closer to ridding the country of him despite 13 months of fighting and 9,000 deaths. Nor are they likely to receive any help to do so – not a very good omen for peace with the West if he is eventually toppled.