It seems that the latest trend sweeping the European Union is the toppling of its leaders. So far, since 2010, no less than 16 EU governments have seen changes in leadership after elections or no confidence votes, while many of those that have remained in power are there hanging by a thread.
The Maltese government, it could be said, is no different in this respect and its first date with destiny has been slated for this Wednesday. The election fever that has swept across the EU since the onslaught of the sovereign debt crisis has also hit Malta, but for very different reasons. But more on that further on.
Today, French and Greek citizens go to the polls in determining elections, and if both countries were to see changes in leadership, the EU’s grand total would rise to 18, and there would have been changes in power in no less than 13 out of the 17 eurozone countries.
In Spain, Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s Socialist party was ushered out in the November 2011 elections and Mariano Rajoy’s conservatives took over following a bursting real estate bubble, the introduction of harsh austerity measures and soaring unemployment.
In Italy, the Berlusconi government also fell in November 2011 as, in addition to his own personal antics, investors lost confidence in his ability to spur economic growth and control public debt. Mario Monti, a former European Commissioner, was named to replace him and lead a technocrat government until elections are held next year.
In May 2010, the UK’s Gordon Brown government was defeated after he had boasted seemingly endlessly of ending the cycle of boom and bust, but as prime minister he had presided mostly over bust.
In Ireland, Brian Cowen was promoted to prime minister in 2008 after serving as finance minister during Ireland’s banking crisis and the collapse of its housing bubble. He resigned before the election but his legacy saw his party lose the February 2011 elections.
In Greece, Socialist leader George Papandreou swept to power in October 2009 over conservative opponents, pledging to spend the country’s way out of a deteriorating economic situation. Two years later, at the height of Greece’s worst financial crisis since World War II, Papandreou’s own deputies force him out after he endangered a hard-won bailout by announcing he would put the agreement to a referendum. He was replaced by caretaker Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, who faces the electoral test today.
A month after Portugal requested a €78 billion bailout, the centre-left Socialist government of Jose Socrates was voted out of power in June 2011. Portugal’s problems stemmed from a decade of feeble growth as it failed to modernise amid increasing global competition, and dug itself ever deeper into debt.
A centre-right government in Denmark lost power in September 2011, in large part due to discontent over austerity measures introduced amid the debt crisis.
Finland’s government was reconfigured after last June’s elections following a sharp surge in support for nationalists who oppose bailouts for debt-stricken eurozone countries.
The Romanian government recently collapsed in the wake of a no-confidence vote, while the Czech Republic just narrowly avoided a no-confidence vote loss. The Dutch government, meanwhile, has resigned after disagreements over budget tightening measures.
After the UK, Spain and Italy, France – in the aftermath of today’s presidential runoff vote – stands to be the next large EU member to see a change of the guard.
In most of these cases, a direct line can be drawn between those governments’ exits and the austerity measures put in place because of the economic situation.
By way of comparison, the Maltese government 0.59 per cent of GDP ‘austerity measure’ is, truth be told, peanuts. But still, the Maltese Nationalist government could very well be the next to be placed on the chopping block. If it is, it can reasonably be argued that the fall of the government would not have been down to the sovereign debt crisis or its handling of public finances since, comparatively speaking, Malta has fared quite well.
In actual fact, if the government is to fall this week after a crucial budget bill vote to be taken on Wednesday, it would really have nothing to do with the budget itself. It would, in fact, all be down to the government’s single-seat parliamentary majority, one man’s quest for reforms that have very little to do with the economic meltdown and an Opposition party’s quest for the power it has been denied for so many years.