While I could not agree more with the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon that the Rio+20 Earth Summit is too important to fail, indications continue to grow stronger than ever that we are heading towards a summit that could easily turn into a damp squib.
Inevitably, one is instantly reminded of the high expectations and disappointing results of the Copenhagen climate summit.
At the end of the day, what will make or break the summit will be neither Mr Ban’s efforts nor the UN’s sense of commitment but rather the political will of the UN member states present, regardless of whether their delegations are led by heads of state, heads of government or lesser mortals.
The bickering that has been going on in the run up to the summit does not augur well. It shows that there is still much hesitation regarding the laying down and agreeing on a new course for socio-economic and environmental development.
Platitudes alone will surely not save the day, but at this stage it is still not even clear whether there will be an agreed text. On the other hand, all indications are that if there actually is one, it risks being heavily watered down.
Unless those attending the summit can come up with an agreed road map that is at the same time forward looking, courageous and do-able, it will all prove to have been a waste of time – an expensive circus rather than a high-sounding summit.
When, only last Friday, Mr Ban pleaded that it was crucial the leaders should at least agree on the bare bones of a plan. He seemed to be dropping enough hints that even agreement on a well fleshed out road map continues to sound somewhat remote at this stage.
Doom-laden as it may sound, failure to achieve any tangible results could easily spell the end of our future.
With the pace of negotiations evidently having been painfully slow, only one message is conveyed: that the political will of the key players is simply non-existent.
On the other hand, I am realistic enough to realise that it is always a gargantuan task to get so many key players to reach a consensus during such mega-multilateral conferences.
I have drawn parallels between the Copenhagen Climate Summit and this one because Copenhagen remains the most monumental example of how global efforts can easily blow up in one’s face. At Rio, where sustainable development is the key item on the agenda, climate considerations are just part of the equation – a mere component of the big picture.
The UN has often been snubbed on various key issues – even on issues involving international strife and conflict – so one should not be at all surprised if Ban Ki-Moon’s call to put the world on a clear path to sustainable development goes unheeded.
While Copenhagen saw the attendance of all the key players, Rio is likely to attract a far less stellar ‘cast.’ It has long been common knowledge that, despite the various pleas and appeals that have been made, many leaders are simply staying away from Rio.
It is not yet clear whether or not our own Prime Minister will be attending. Rumour has it that, as a sweetener, the government was at some stage even toying with the idea of sending former rebel PN MP Franco Debono as a special envoy or plenipotentiary ambassador, together with or instead of the serving Environment Minister.
My hope is that any potential deal in Rio is not hindered by the world financial crisis. On the contrary, such a crisis should spur us into thinking far more outside the box in our quest for a real and tangible Green Deal.
If our resources have long been running out, the least we can do to preserve them when resource efficiency should be uppermost on any country’s national agenda, should actually encourage us to back the Rio Summit to the hilt – more than ever.
On the positive side, we are reliably informed that the head of the IMF will be attending Rio – a presence which, even if symbolic, will send a clear and positive signal.
In the same way that the IMF has recently switched from an austerity to a growth agenda, Lagarde’s presence could be interpreted as a fresh signal that the IMF will be attaching bigger importance to the whole idea of sustainable growth. This is something that has never been on its agenda to date, particularly given its rather unsocial approach to certain burning issues.
If Rio intends to succeed, it cannot limit itself to quick-fix solutions and/or short-termism. On the contrary, it must have long-term goals as well, accompanied by the necessary benchmarks.
Ban Ki-Moon’s public promotion of an energy-for-all initiative, together with access to water and the need to ease the global food crisis, are all feathers in his cap.
I have never been one to indulge in too much pessimism and/or alarmism. However if, on the other hand, we are not to feel deflated and faced with more dashed hopes, we simply need to get real about the prospects of success at Rio, otherwise we will surely end up with a damp squib of a summit in an era when summitry has long proved to be ineffective on its own. This has been the case with the endless EU summits that have often failed to resolve anything – except to postpone key decisions on certain issues to even more inconclusive summits!
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Leo Brincat is the Labour Party’s Shadow Minister for the Environment, Sustainable Development and Climate Change.