Following the death of the Saudi Crown Prince Nayef, his brother Salman has been appointed the new heir-apparent: The third during octogenarian King Abdullah’s seven-year reign

However, there are no indications this will affect the status quo in the supreme structure of Saudi power. Even against the background of the tectonic changes brought about by last year’s Arab Spring, any dramatic changes in Saudi Arabia’s political course are highly unlikely.

Although he only served for eight months following the demise of his older brother and the country’s long-serving defence minister, Prince Sultan, Nayef consolidated his position when he forced his half-brother King Abdullah to appoint him to second deputy prime minister in 2009. This was a vacant position since the 2005 death of Nayef and Sultan’s full brother, the late King Fahd. This way the nexus Sultan-Nayef, already firmly in control of the defence and interior ministries, curbed the king’s careful move toward reform.

The aftermath of 9/11 was Nayef’s golden opportunity. When it became evident that al-Qaeda’s tentacles extended even into Saudi Arabia, he rapidly increased his powers by joining the US-led global war on terror. In order to quash this embarrassing challenge to Saudi rule, Nayef was given a virtual carte blanche to root out any forms of domestic dissent. As internal security was becoming increasingly a matter of international collaboration, he was ideally placed to insist on exercising even greater power. His elevation to the position of second deputy prime minister also gave him a say in foreign policy.

Thus, Nayef not only expanded his personal influence, but also consolidated the collective grip on power he and his surviving full brothers have held for many decades. Originally known as “Sudairi Seven”, this segment of the Saudi dynasty has not only effectively controlled the kingdom, but has also exercised disproportionate prominence within the royal family, whose extended membership now runs into the thousands.

The two oldest Sudairi brothers, Fahd and Sultan, had already been at the core of Saudi power since 1962, when Fahd took control of the interior ministry and made Sultan defence minister; two core government departments they have never relinquished.

This way, the Sudairi brothers have been the architects of a policy that secured the power of the Al Saud at home, while simultaneously enabling the kingdom to become the most powerful state in the Middle East. This is especially after its competitors, Egypt and Iran, lost their influences due to a controversial peace agreement with Israel and the fall of the Shah. By showing themselves loyal allies of the United States, they not only ensured exclusive access to a succession of American presidents, but also to lucrative government-to-government defence and security deals, as well as other generous commercial contracts. In the 1980s and 1990s, they further tightened their grip by manoeuvering their sons into important domestic, defence and foreign policy-making positions, with Sultan’s son Bandar in a star role as ambassador to Washington

But for now, there are various reasons to put one’s bets on the new crown prince.

Aside from exercising direct political power as defence minister and on account of his five decades as governor of Riyadh, Salman is the most important member of the royal family council. In this capacity he is in charge of dynastic affairs such as marriage alliances and mediating in conflicts among princes. From all the Sudairi brothers, he appears to be closest to King Abdullah in terms of temperament and political outlook. Born in 1936, he is also well positioned to act as a bridge between successive generations of princes. Finally, there is also a certain flair for PR. Salman and his sons own an extensive international newspaper and media empire, which gives him a finger at the pulse of current affairs and the opportunity to influence public opinion.

All this will enable Salman to profile himself as someone ‘in touch’ with changing times by presenting a more modern face of an archaic institution. At the same time, his political shrewdness honed through decades of experience at the highest echelons of Saudi politics will also ensure that his branch of the royal family will remain firmly in charge for years to come.

This way, the Al Saud will continue to pre-empt any demands for liberalisation that might jeopardise their power.

Dr Carool Kersten’s is a senior lecturer in the study of Islam and the Muslim world at King’s College London and a research associate at the Centre for South East Asian Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS). He is the author of Cosmopolitans and Heretics: New Muslim Intellectuals and the Study of Islam (2011), co-editor of Demystifying the Caliphate (2012) and the editor of the book series

Contemporary Thought in the Islamic World for Asghate Publishing.

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