Yesterday’s newspapers were dominated by the prevailing situation in the Nationalist Party, which came to a head last Thursday when the three rebel MPs who voted against or abstained in parliamentary procedures that brought embarrassment to the government were told they would not be allowed to contest the next election on behalf of the PN.

The move triggered a series of other declarations made by Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, Franco Debono and Jesmond Mugliett, who in no uncertain terms lead to one question which needs to be answered – does the PN still hold a majority in Parliament? And the most likely answer to that is in the negative.

We have been speaking of an early election for months. The PN has soldiered on, moving from one crisis to the next as its flimsy one-seat majority allowed little space for manoeuvring. But now we have arrived at the point of no return.

Parliament has been adjourned for the summer recess, and is expected to reconvene on 1 October. The date has been set, but it is still unclear whether the House of Representatives will meet again, given the current circumstances. It will not be a surprise if Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi uses the Independence celebrations as a launching pad for the election. Maybe he will not even wait for September.

The next big test will be tomorrow, when the PN executive will meet to discuss the call made by Dr Pullicino Orlando for Malta’s former Ambassador to the EU, Richard Cachia Caruana, to be kicked out of the party. Dr Pullicino Orlando’s vote with the Opposition last month forced Mr Cachia Caruana’s resignation, and now JPO wants him out of the PN too.

JPO expects the PN executive to follow his command, but this scenario seems next to impossible. In the PN executive, JPO does not have the backing of the Labour Party, which he found convenient to oust Mr Cachia Caruana from his position. Here, JPO is fighting a one-man battle, one in which he will not find support.

The PN executive – through correspondence with President Marthese Portelli which was made public – has expressed serious reservations on JPO’s claims, and this makes it clear that tomorrow’s decision will not be anything different from an outright refusal of JPO’s demands.

This will push JPO out of the party – he has said he cannot imagine himself as still being part of the PN if his demand is refused. With him pulling out, and with Dr Debono and Mr Mugliett also at war with the PN, it is inevitable that the country will go to the polls early.