Every year, the country’s budget is a balancing act, teetering between doing what needs to be done and doing what people want to be done. In an ideal world these two matters are one and the same, but in reality the state of affairs is quite different indeed.
And this autumn’s budget will be a bigger balancing act than any other seen, at least in this current legislature.
Constitutionally, the government’s term ends next spring and before then the government, bent as it is on serving out the full duration of the legislature, but faced with serious internal problems, could possibly stave off certain parliamentary votes for fear of well and truly losing its parliamentary majority. But given the present situation with MPs Franco Debono and Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, there is no way it can safely avoid budget-related votes for that long.
The budget itself will have to be voted upon, as will each and every ministry’s budget, as will the budget’s implementation. When it comes to the latter, the independent MP, the government, by all signs, can pretty much bank on his support. But with the former, the government can expect something of a hard time, particularly when it comes to the budget of the transport ministry, where he appears to reserve a certain disdain for its leadership.
Should reconciliation efforts this summer prove unsuccessful, if there are indeed any at all, it is very difficult to see how the government could expect to pass unscathed through the budget votes, which of course are also money bills. For fear of that, the government could very well time the election so that debates centre around who will, once freshly elected, be able to present the best budget for the country.
But the last thing the economy needs right now are hollow, budget-linked electoral promises that will, one way or another, need to be at least seen to be fulfilled. In that scenario, in which budget proposals are reduced to immediate populist issues such as electricity price reductions or income tax breaks, the country could face a very serious, potentially derailing economic crisis. Given the economic situation in Europe, it would not take much to derail the Maltese economy, which is walking something of a tightrope itself.
In that scenario, what the country will need are no-nonsense budget proposals that cut to the heart of the problems the country is facing, which are not always very friendly or popular, unlike simply cutting taxes or energy rates. That is, so far, what the government is proposing in its pre-budget document, which has very few frills attached.
The government faces a very difficult balancing act indeed this time around. Any ‘surprise’ budgetary measures that were not in the party’s 2008 electoral manifesto will have to be cleared with Dr Pullicino Orlando for approval, as the government’s coalition partner. Dr Debono, however, has vowed that he will no longer support the government while the current transport minister remains in place. The lengths to which he will go to fulfil that vow still remain to be seen.
And on top of all that, it will have to find that eternally elusive political median, just before an election, between what the people want and what they need.
Syrian fuse burning to the quick
The further the situation in Syria deteriorates and rushes headlong toward an even bloodier, all-out civil war, the shorter the fuse attached to the powder keg that is Syria burns. Yesterday fighting intensified in the capital Damascus, just two weeks after the government quashed attacks on the city that included rebel incursions into downtown neighbourhoods and a bomb attack that killed four members of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's inner circle.
Over the past weeks, the 17-month revolt against the Assad regime has been transformed from an insurgency taking place largely in remote provinces into a battle for control of the country’s two main cities – Aleppo, the country’s commercial hub and its largest city, and the capital Damascus, where fighting exploded last week after rebel fighters entered the city in large numbers.
According to activists, more than 19,000 people have been killed since demonstrations began in March 2011.
Until the uprising, the Assad regime had been something of a stabilising force in the region, geographically and politically. Syria borders five other nations and controls water supplies to three of them − Iraq, Jordan and parts of Israel. The country has close ties to Iran and the Hezbollah in Lebanon – a country it controlled for decades and where it still holds a great amount of sway. And although Syria is officially at war with Israel, which has occupied the Golan Heights since 1967, the border has remained quiet under the Assads’ rule.
But this delicate balance could easily be upset should Syria, a country of 22 million people, descend further into the chaotic fog of war.
The Syrian powder keg is not only primed for ignition but also the entire region − if matters are not handled very carefully indeed by Syria itself and the international community − stands a very serious risk of going up in flames as well.