As summer starts to lose its grip with the first heavy thunderstorms of the year, the country now braces itself for the final lap on the political track

Last week, at the Granaries, the Prime Minister made it clear that his government is “entering a challenging phase of this legislature,” thereby fuelling speculation that indeed, the end is near.

Curiously, he went only half way in assuring supporters that the election was not exactly around the corner, going only as far as to say that this doesn't mean that he would call an election “next week” and leaving everyone guessing whether he would after all, dissolve Parliament the week following the Independence Day festivities.

Indeed, rumour is rife that the election may be held as early as 10 November 2012, with the Prime Minister conspicuously reluctant to quell the uncertainty when he had the grand opportunity to do so. The most challenging phase of this legislature, he said. What he could have been referring to could very well be the final budget as the country's financial and economic scenarios are extremely sensitive and with a characteristically irritable parliamentary group, he has some tightrope walking to do.

The question is whether he is ready to face a budget with the full knowledge that he has a couple of snipers in his own parliamentary group dead set on killing him off once and for all, or blow the final whistle before to avoid further collateral political damage irrespective of his party's standing in the polls.

This legislature's lifeline is about to expire anyway, so calling an election before the turn of the year is nothing extraordinary. Dissolving Parliament sooner rather than later could avoid the ignominy of seeing his government brought down by people of his own ilk. Independent MP JPO and Jesmond Mugliett have nothing else to lose and the angry Franco Debono, with his ominous threats, is as unpredictable as ever.

I wouldn’t be surprised if some other nationalist MPs decide to rock the boat. Both JPO and Debono had mentioned that there is dissent across the length and breadth of the parliamentary group and I tend to believe so. The men most likely to be suggesting to Dr Gonzi to hang on are his own ministers who must be feeling uncomfortable about their party's electoral fortunes and relish the prospect of prolonging their tenure in office as much as possible.

Whichever way Dr Gonzi's decision goes, he will be making it now. If rumours of a snap November election are anything to go by, he will have to dissolve parliament by late September or early October. But if Dr Gonzi intends to hold on to power, his silence will signal that he prefers to face another budget. Irrespective of the outcome of the budget, that will seal the matter for an election early next year, the way I see it.

The final lap has started. Both parties are already in belligerent mode and prepared to face the final task. I have this awkward feeling that it is going to be tough and dirty.

For its own political survival, the PL must win this one. It cannot afford to lose more elections. It is gearing itself up very well and looks prepared to win and to govern. But it knows that a week is long in politics and it pays the PL more to have an election sooner rather than later. On the other hand, the PN is staring at defeat, quite what it was doing at the last election and yet managed to turn things around, but now the stakes are far higher. The disgruntlement sounds deeper and the PN will need more than its survival instinct to clinch this one too. Nevertheless, its defiance in the face of adversity is there for all to see.

In Gonzi's stead, I would have preferred to say that it is the country that is entering a challenging phase.