It came about for the reasons we all know, as an effect of other causes, not a planned development, not as part of a strategy.

Yet, in a time-honoured way, the party’s top levels were quick to grasp the opportunities the new and unplanned situation offered. Since Tonio Borg was nominated by the Prime Minister to replace John Dalli as Malta’s European Commissioner, there was an important vacancy created as a result – that of Deputy Party Leader.

There is, as I see it, within the party’s core, an ambition to remain in power and to hold on to, to hog, power. But surprisingly there also emerged a contrary current, one that rebels and contests the already-taken decisions.

As a result, the flag of rebellion has been raised. Simon Busuttil, who all perceived to have been ‘inspired’ to grab Dr Borg’s seat, found himself challenged by Tonio Fenech.

There is now a huge effort at reflecting mirrors, to portray this contest as a contest between friends, almost just for the fun of it.

This can be seen from the photo on this paper, which I lifted from Paul Borg Olivier’s Facebook page, almost as if the two were colleagues at school.

But as anybody who goes round the party’s structures can tell, there is also steel in the contest. Over the past days I have heard many different and contrasting opinions expressed by people who in a few days’ time, will be voting one way or another.

Maybe I am not going to be equidistant and irenic in what follows for this naturally depends on the people who somehow got through to me in the past days.

I repeat what I have been saying since last year: that I believe the Gonzi years are drawing to a close and, while contributing a lot to the country, the time has come for the party to realise that with Dr Gonzi at its helm does not stand a chance in the coming election.

Time and again polls have been made and they have all shown the same trend. Time and again various attempts have been made to shift the perception around and time and again the same impression keeps coming across that this is an administration that has passed its sell-by date.

Over the past months, the party in government had to combat onslaughts from the rebels in its midst. It became daily clearer and clearer that the much-vaunted 2008 election victory was a poisoned chalice for it allowed certain people to slip in and to become the saviours of the party when loyalty was not part of their character make-up.

Timid in addressing this issue, the party struggled on, clinging to power, losing itself in petty struggles which earned it a day at a time, knowing it had lost the support of the majority in the House but still somehow surviving. It was a pointless exercise in hanging by the tips of its fingers and the country as a whole, and not just the government, was in this way hanging from the cliff.

It was against this background that the sudden departure of Tonio Borg took place. It is against this background that the contest is taking place.

In one of my past articles I described Simon Busuttil as a clone, a chosen Son appointed by the party leader, much in the same way that Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici was chosen by Dom Mintoff in the 1980s and Lawrence Gonzi chosen by Eddie Fenech Adami in 2004.

But a friend from the Tonio Fenech camp put me right. There can be no comparison between Lawrence Gonzi and Simon Busuttil.

Dr Gonzi had contested the 1987 election to take off some of the dissident party supporters when Josie Muscat was eased out of the party.

Then, after Jimmy Farrugia resigned as Speaker, Dr Gonzi was made Speaker and became one of the best Speakers Malta ever had. He showed personality and spunk – even sending Lorry Sant out of the House when he became insufferable.

Then following the 1996 election defeat and Dr Gonzi became party secretary and got involved in all the issues a party secretary has to handle.

Then he became Minister for Social Policy and Deputy Leader and he masterminded the many reforms in social policy especially with regard to the dockyard that took place there.

So when Eddie moved on to the Palace, Dr Gonzi had accumulated cachet.

On the contrary, Dr Busuttil, though talented and capable, just does not have this background at ground level. He was important in the 2003 EU referendum build-up as head of MIC and he did, of course, get all those votes in the European Parliament elections, but while he won, the party lost, the last time losing by two seats to four.

There is also deep dismay within the party’s structures at Dr Busuttil’s no doubt well-intentioned but deeply divisive timid attempts to try some form of reconciliation with the party’s rebels. These have been quite vehement comments passed in this regard.

When Tonio Fenech announced his candidature, many may have thought he was just putting up a token fight so that Dr Busuttil avoids the bad impression left last year when Dr Gonzi was the sole candidate in a party leader contest that never was.

Instead, it is a real contest, a very real one.

This became clear last Sunday when it was revealed he was being supported by practically the entire Cabinet. Only Joe Cassar openly sided with Dr Busuttil and George Pullicino still has to announce whom he is supporting.

If I was tempted to still think the contest was a make-believe one, a comment passed by a Dr Busuttil supporter made me aware of deeper currents. These ministers, the comment went, want to preserve their power.

So Dr Busuttil was being portrayed as offering a change from the present administration, but a change piloted from on high. I immediately remembered the ministerial cull that took place immediately in the aftermath of the 2008 election when ministers who had just been returned quite suddenly lost their post in a very cruel and brutal way that even today still scares people.

The 2004 leadership election, one remembers, was between two very different people, who both had cachet within the party. Going into the election, one could have thought that the two candidates had about the same amount of support.

Then, when the chips fell down, Lawrence Gonzi emerged as party leader and John Dalli’s support simply disintegrated. Even now, I still think the two contestants are more or less equally matched, but once again it will be the actual result that will tell us.

In 2008, again, attempts were made to portray the contest as one between friends but this never took on: there was anger and resentment, and some ugly scenes did ensue.

When the results were announced, I still remember, there was much hugging and kissing but John Dalli stood texting on his mobile as Lawrence Gonzi enjoyed his triumph.

I certainly do not consider Simon Busuttil or Tonio Fenech as having the same antagonistic undercurrents as there were in 2004 and I certainly do not imagine the loser among them to go off in a sulk and consider that a promotion to Brussels is a jail sentence.

In this, at least, the party has been cleaned of such antagonistic currents and, even if the party were to go into Opposition, collaboration between the two may yet give the party new life. When Eddie beat Guido for party leadership he did not send him into exile but cannily kept him near as deputy leader then as Foreign Minister and then as President. This paid dividends.

The two have yet to stake out what unites them and in what they differ. So far, the contest between them is one of two personalities. But in the coming days the attentive party delegates will see their respective different emphases and perhaps, an idea of a different future path for the party.

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