On the face of it, it appears that the die has been cast and that after a year of political uncertainty, procrastination and prolongation, an early election is to become a concrete reality tomorrow evening as the House takes its vote on what was under the circumstances a very valid budget for 2013.

But then again, one can never tell what political gambits the Nationalist Party may still have left to play. One bit of speculation doing the rounds is that the Prime Minister may actually call an election before the budget vote so as to avoid it being shot down, and so that the Nationalist Party could go to the polls with its head held as high as can be expected.

Another theory is that the party may harbour a secret desire for the budget to actually be shot down, which, so the theory goes, the party would win itself sympathy votes come polling time. But this suggestion is even more ridiculous than the first.

In actual fact, it is highly doubtful that either of these scenarios will come to fruition tomorrow evening. In all likelihood, the Prime Minister will give his reply to the Opposition leader, a vote will be called for, dissenting Nationalist MP Franco Debono will face the performance of his lifetime when he stands up to explain his stance, as he will most certainly be expected to do, and vote against the budget along with the whole of the Opposition.

Either way, it would seem that after a good year of no confidence and confidence votes, of threats and political manoeuvring and baiting of dissenting MPs, push has at long last come to shove and these months of political uncertainty will be brought to an end 48 hours after the writing of this piece.

But the fact of the matter is that neither the good Dr Debono nor the Opposition, save that thorny issue of single computation minimum wage earners now facing the prospect of their income being taxed, disagree with the budget as such.

What they disagree with is the government. In an article on today’s front page, Dr Debono argues that one cannot vote to give money to a government that no one believes in. And the Opposition for its part has said that it cannot vote in favour of a budget, no matter how much it may agree with its contents, when the Prime Minister has practically invited the Opposition to do the opposite by calling tomorrow’s budget vote a vote of confidence not in the budget, but in the government.

As such, whatever happens tomorrow, Budget 2013 appears set to remain in place. And if the budget does not pass the parliamentary test, there are at least provisions to keep the country running in the meantime until the general election is held this spring.

And with a spring election being anticipated, if the Labour Party does win the next election it would have needed a new budget in hand, ready to pass through Parliament as early in its term as possible.

That eventuality was neatly plugged by Labour’s announcement that it would retain the budget announced by the government. The fact of the matter is that if Labour were to redraft any aspect of Budget 2013, it would also have to reopen discussions with the European Commission, which for the first time this year is assessing member states’ budgets to ensure they are fiscally responsible and sustainable. 

But in tweaking the tax bands so that minimum wage earners do not have their income taxed, it may very well need to reopen negotiations with the European Commission after all since the budget is a mosaic and each piece has its place in the bigger picture.

And by saying that it will proceed with Budget 2013 as it stands, the Opposition has also effectively backed out of what could have been an electoral battle of the budgets. But whatever the case, if the budget does not survive the parliamentary vote, it will serve as a fundamental cornerstone in the Nationalist Party’s electoral programme.

But any which way one looks at it, the PN can look forward to a virtual electoral field day over the defeated budget. It will seek to demonise Labour for voting against it when it said it would retain Budget 2013 in its entirety but that it will tweak matters so that minimum wage earners will not be taxed, an issue the party has turned into one of its red lines. 

Short of a parliamentary miracle tomorrow, the Prime Minister will be paying a call to the President of the Republic within three days to dissolve Parliament and to give an election date. But thankfully, official campaigning, in what appears to been a cross-party agreement, will not begin until after the festive season, and there will be no electoral Grinch to steal this Christmas.