We seem to have arrived at the point of no return.

The government is set to lose the vote on the budget for 2013 tonight when the House of Representatives meets to hear the Prime Minister’s reply to what the Opposition Leader said last Wednesday.

But all eyes and ears will be on the vote that will be taken afterwards which is set to be the last in this legislature. Nationalist MP Franco Debono continues to insist that he will be voting against the budget – not because he has some contention about it, but because the bridges between himself and the party and government he formed part of have long been burnt. It will be the Ghaxaq MP’s swan song.

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi has said that a vote of disapproval will leave him no other option but to call an election. But it will not be an “early” one – in the sense that, in spite of all the shenanigans that took place during this term, the five years in office are almost up and, with an election date set for March, they will be completed.

The repercussions of tonight’s no vote are however wider than that – as it would mean that the proposals made by the Finance Minister in his budget speech on 28 November will either be lost or, at best, delayed. The income tax cuts, the raise in children’s allowances and many other measures announced in the budget will be put on hold.

This is the extent of what will happen after tonight’s vote. While everyone seems to agree that the budget measures are good – even the Opposition has said so – we have a situation in which they will be voted against tonight.

It will be a long campaign. Both sides have apparently come to terms to kick off the election campaign after the Christmas and New Year celebrations. Still, it will be a long three months, the longest allowed by the Constitution, between the announcement of the date and the election day itself. Election campaigns must be between five weeks and three months – and, if the March date is confirmed, this will be the longest campaign ever.

Still, it must be pointed out that the two political parties have long been in election mode. So the announcement of the election day will, strictly speaking, bring about little changes. If anything, the dose will increase as the election day draws closer.