2012 is almost over now. And yes, this ending year was surely an eventful year through not along the interpretation of some in terms of the 5125-year-long cycle encrypted into the Mesoamerican Long Count calendar. Unfortunately, however, it will end on a rather sad note following the news of the Newtown school shooting in Connecticut. From a national perspective, it started with a bang and ended on similar lines.
There were a couple of events that characterized the present year. Tensions within the PN have been high for most of the year. These divisions resulted in the lost of a single-seat majority by the PN after one of its members of parliament resigned in late July. Things then escalated to the extent that the budget was not approved. As a result, Parliament must be dissolved with the elections now penciled for the 9 of March.
Leaving the national scene and concentrating on the international sphere, one event that captured the attention of the media for several months was the US Presidential elections in which President Obama overcame a disappointingly slow economic recovery to win a second term, forging a coalition of women, minorities and young people that reflects the changing political face of America.
Earlier in 2012, tensions between Iran and the US over the former’s nuclear programme escalated as the US and EU announced further sanctions, including an EU embargo on Iranian oil. Iran responded angrily with threats including the closure of the Hormuz strait. Later on, Israel joined the fray, threatening military action. A clash between the two remains a possibility, particularly as some in the Israeli government remain skeptical about the benefits of diplomacy and sanctions.
2012 will also be remembered for the escalation of violence between Israel forces and Palestine. But this was overshadowed by the upgrading the Palestinian Authority’s status to that of “non-member observer state,” one step closer to international recognition of Palestine as a state. Nine European states changed their votes from 2011, all in the direction of supporting the PA’s efforts – and thus clashing with Israeli and U.S. opposition to the vote. Europe has long held the middle-ground between the U.S.-Israel position and the rest of the world’s overwhelming support for Palestinians.
On a slightly less serious note, 2012 will also be remembered as the year when the phrase “doing a schettino” was coined after the captain of the Costa Concordia was distracted by guests he had invited onto the bridge before his cruise liner rammed into rocks off the Tuscan island of Giglio.
Turning to 2013, the outlook looks rather uncertain. Again taking the US as a starting point, the world is faced by the uncertainty created by the so called fiscal cliff where America faces fiscal tightening in 2013 worth up to 5% of GDP. According to The Economist, this “is a Greek-scale squeeze…it would not take many months for it to push the country into recession.” The situation is more complex than the norm since unless America’s lawmakers vote to increase the “debt ceiling” (the maximum amount of debt that the Treasury can issue) by around March, the federal government will be unable to pay its bills—including, potentially, its bondholders.
Closer to our shores, 2013 is likely to see the re-entry of Silvio Berlusconi in politics although things seem to evolving on a daily basis in this regard. In fact, many are still questioning whether he will in fact contest in the first place. This because just days after he startled financial markets by saying he would run for office, Berlusconi came out again and said that he would consider withdrawing if Prime Minister Mario Monti ran as the leader of a center-right coalition. Up till now, Mr. Monti has given no indication that he plans to take Mr. Berlusconi up on his offer.
On the other side of the Atlantic, having received a renewed mandate, Chavez will no doubt want to move swiftly to consolidate this victory. The biggest unknown remains Chavez’s true state of health and medical prognosis. The turn of events in this part of the world will have particular impact given that nowadays Venezuela is one of the largest producers of oil in the world.
On a more generic scale, Europe’s debt crisis remains by far greatest risk to the economy although the European central bank new funding programme for struggling countries on the peripheral was an important step in stabilizing market sentiment.
A new year always bring with it new hope. Hope that things will be better. The same sentiment should also prevail and this country prepares itself to decide on the way it wants to go for the next 5 years.