Think the next pope should be the first pope of African origin in centuries, or should the Vatican opt for tradition and pick an Italian instead? British bookmaker Coral is suggesting a possible candidate which could appease both camps: Italian footballer Mario Balotelli.
A number of other bookmakers have included some unlikely candidates from the papacy, in an apparent attempt at free publicity.
Pope Benedict XVI’s surprise announcement that he will resign at the end of the month has seen bookmakers swiftly move in to capitalise on the mounting speculation on whoever succeeds him.
Betting on the next pope may not go well with many Catholics, but it has a long tradition. The earliest confirmed instance of betting on a papal candidate dates back to 1503, when Pope Pius III was elected, although such betting is believed to have occurred long before then.
Technically, betting on the papacy is grounds for excommunication from the Catholic Church: it was banned by Pope Gregory XIV in March 1591, but while this has not been rescinded, even priests were recorded to be gambling openly on who would succeed Pope John Paul II in 2005.
Bookmakers’ odds vary, but six cardinals – two from Africa, two from Italy, and two from the Americas – seem to be favoured.
Nigerian cardinal Francis Arinze and Ghanaian cardinal Peter Turkson appear to have the best odds of becoming the first pope from sub-Saharan Africa: the last African pope was the North African Gelasius I, who died in 496.
The vast majority of popes have been Italian – including all popes between 1523 and 1978 – and Milan Archbishop Angelo Scola and the Vatican’s Secretary of State Tarcisio Bertone appear to be the most likely to continue that tradition.
The next two favourites are Canadian cardinal Marc Ouellet and Argentine cardinal Leandro Sandri. Latin America actually accounts for the largest proportion of the world’s Catholics, but 62 of the 118 cardinals eligible to vote for the next pope are European.
Bookmakers then include a number of other cardinals on their lists, but some do not stop there.
Apart from Balotelli, Coral also allows people to gamble on musicians Bob Geldof, Bono and Madonna, football coach Jose Mourinho, talk show host Oprah Winfrey and former cyclist Lance Armstrong.
Irish bookmaker Paddy Power also allows bets on Bono, as well as outspoken atheist scientist Richard Dawkins.
It even allows bets on a fictional Irish priest: Father Dougal McGuire from the popular comedy series Father Ted: bookmaker Stan James also allows bets on the series’ Father Jack Hackett.
Ladbrokes allows bets on former British Prime Minister Tony Blair – who converted to Catholicism.
Residents of Valletta can also use Stan James to bet on the city’s recently-appointed cultural ambassador – Peter Andre.
The last non-cardinal to be elected pope – Pope Urban VI – died in 1389, but the papacy is still open to non-cardinals. One does not even need to be a priest when elected.
While an alleged prophecy attributed to 12th century monk Saint Malachy suggests that a Pope Peter would usher the beginning of the apocalypse, Valletta’s ambassador cannot be the chosen one, as he is not a baptised Catholic.
Women are excluded because popes have to be ordained as Bishop of Rome, and ordination is only open to men, so Madonna’s Catholic background will not suffice.
But Balotelli may have an outside chance, as do Blair, Berlusconi and Mourinho. And for those willing to bet on it, an opportunity for a quick, thousand-fold return on investment exists.