We may think of the various events that make up news in our country as all separate and having their own dynamics.

But seen from the top, as the country’s leaders will no doubt see it, all are strands interplaying among themselves, sometimes coming together, sometimes drawing apart.

For the man at the top, in this case the Prime Minister, in a country like Malta with a strong tradition of autocracy, the various strands offer incredible possibilities and multiple possibilities for interplay.

I say all these strands will come together on Thursday when the Prime Minister attends the European Council.

The whispers are all there: Malta is moving towards a confrontation with the EU like it never had in the years since accession.

Obviously, the main strand is the situation regarding asylum seekers. There is mounting frustration in Malta, shared across all sectors, all segments of the population, as more and more asylum seekers take to the boats and cross over, sometimes getting to Malta, by accident, and more often making it to the shores of Sicily which is where they want to go.

A little-noticed BBC documentary had this to say last week: “Migrants and people traffickers have long seen Libya as the best way of getting from North Africa to Europe.

“Its extensive land and sea borders are perfect for smugglers, as is its proximity to European shores.

“During the conflict which saw long-time leader Muammar Gaddafi toppled in 2011, migrants went elsewhere but now they have returned.

“While the country is mostly peaceful, the state has been unable to impose control, meaning the security forces are often unable to pursue the trafficking gangs.

“Two Tunisian migrants in Tripoli summed it up by saying it’s ‘easier from Libya’ – even though their home country is also a major hub for those trying to reach Europe.

“Both men, in their 20s, have friends or family who have made the journey across the sea from Libya and have settled there, married foreign nationals and encouraged them to follow suit.

“As one of them put it emphatically: ‘If I die on the way, then I die. I would rather die than live in poverty’.

“Both are disenchanted by the realities they faced at home and determined to make the journey at any cost.”

Over the past weeks, we have been wondering why refugees from Syria, and also from Somalia, undertake such long journeys to get to Libya and then to attempt to cross over, notwithstanding the danger and the risk.

There seems to be no way of stopping them. Law and order are practically non-existent in Libya, nor do the Libyan authorities seem eager to try and keep these persons inside Libya rather than allow them to go.

But that is not how the Maltese, led by their Prime Minister, see it. They look at what is happening and all they see is that the EU is not helping Malta. In more ways than one, this is very true: the EU countries look the other way when Malta asks them to help share the burden.

The way the EU is now, burden sharing and solidarity many times play hide and seek. The coming European Parliament elections in May will see, it is widely expected, huge inroads by eurosceptic parties and candidates who are playing to full houses on the austerity overkill bandwagon. The real Europe, the one at voter level, does not want to hear anymore about solidarity with the Greeks and the Spanish, the Italians and the Portuguese.

It’s every country to its own and this translates to no solidarity for Malta that carries such a heavy burden. The burden, contrary to what many think, is not EU-imposed but imposed by the common rules of human solidarity. This was seen, for instance, in the latest rescue by AFM of 129 asylum seekers who risked a watery grave, and even more, the rescue before that, of people in the water.

But then the situation is made even more unbearable by the EU rules, especially the Dublin rules, which say that the country that gets the refugees has to keep them.

Whatever happens on Thursday and Friday at the European Council stems from this. Malta will, most probably be on its own as other nations, such as Italy, do seem to have more resources to tackle this influx. It all depends on the acumen of Dr Muscat and the sane advice he will no doubt get as long as he does not repeat the pushback bluster of last summer, with the consequent climb down.

A clash with the EU will be music to the government’s ears. This government, as we have seen in these months, is no longer based on the principle held sacred by its predecessor, which made the EU the centre of its focus.

On the contrary, this government has opened up to all sorts of nations or groups of countries outside the EU. We may think in this regard of China (but then so has the British government) but we can also consider the government forays to the Gulf, as well as elsewhere. The government is patently finding opportunities for Foreign Direct Investment outside the EU, as also evidenced by this residential scheme, built on the failure of the previous government and soon expanded to include citizenship as well.

Malta is still integrated in Europe, it is still a eurozone country, and Europe is still its main trading partner and the source of most of its visitors. But an EU that is still struggling with recession and high unemployment offers scant support to that which can be offered by emerging and growing markets.

We have had trade missions to countries like Israel and Palestine with opportunities for growth in trade but very few trade missions to EU member states, with the possible exception of forays to the British financial services sector.

Relations with the EU seem to be heading for another clash, at least that is my interpretation of it. The clash regarding the budget for next year.

Malta, as many remember, is inside the Excessive Deficit Procedure. But like all other eurozone countries, this time it is subjected to what is called the ‘two-pack’ – that is the prior oversight by the Commission of the country’s forthcoming Budget.

As I explained over the past week in many articles in the daily paper, it would seem that by pencilling in 4 November for Budget Day, the government is pointedly bypassing the Commission’s reactions that are due to come in much later, towards the end of November.

This is not just an issue of dates but also one of making a stand. It is true that other countries in the eurozone are chafing against this Commission imposition but none, as far as I could see, in as blatant a manner as that evinced by the Maltese government. It’s sticking up a middle finger to the EU.

This resembles very much what happened in the early 1970s when Dom Mintoff took on the (then) mighty British Empire and stuck doggedly to his guns. I have a feeling Dr Muscat is consciously building up to a repeat performance.

It would be interesting to see what the EU reaction will be. In the 1970s, the British accepted to speed up the winding down of their military presence in Malta and no tears were shed for them.

This time, Malta is an equal partner around the EU table and it’s very difficult to kick at something of which you are a part. Maybe the EU has so many problems on its table it will take little notice of this rebellion by its smallest member. Maybe the coming influx of eurosceptics will blunt Malta’s stand. After all, so far at least, Malta has been on the receiving end of EU largesse, although that is due to be phased out over the coming years as Malta slips out of the under-75 per cent of EU-average GDP and stops being a net receiver.

But let’s not underestimate the EU. Look at Hungary, for instance, a far bigger country than Malta. When its prime minister became bolshie, the EU let him be, but then withheld vital financial help and let the country slowly come to its senses.

The EU is not a British Empire on its last legs and the past months have shown that the necrologies we heard so often that the euro is dead, the eurozone about to split and countries to return to their original currencies were all very premature and wrong.

Germany is still supreme and, though it maybe will not have a functioning government until Christmas, it is still laying down the law. Neither Merkel nor Schauble will look kindly on a small country that tries to stamp its tiny feet.

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