The Central African Republic (CAR) has been on the brink of chaos on many occasions since its independence from France in 1960. However, events during the nine months since the coup of 24 March 2013, have made the risk of state collapse much more real, triggering a serious humanitarian crisis, a breakdown of law and order, and destabilizing spill-over effects in neighbouring states. As the tragedy in the CAR continues to unfold, it is worth exploring why the political and security situation has been allowed to deteriorate to such an extent, and how the international community can prevent having another Somalia, this time in the heart of Africa.

The CAR does not lack natural resources, and in normal circumstances it could be quite a prosperous country. It covers a land area approximately the size of France, and in its vast river basins has abundant arable land. It has significant mineral and other resources such as uranium, crude oil, timber, gold and diamonds. It is the world’s 12th producer of crude diamonds. Its income comes mostly from the cultivation of food crops and cotton, animal husbandry and the mining industry, especially diamonds which account for 40 – 55 % of export revenues.

Yet, in spite of these resources the CAR is one of the poorest countries in Africa and among the lowest on the Human Development Index (HDI) - in the 180th place out of 187 countries with comparable data. Only 4% of the arable land is cultivated each year, and nearly half of the extracted diamonds leave the country clandestinely.  Data provided by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) sounds appalling. Life expectancy at birth is 49 years, under-five mortality is 159 per 1000 live births, 11% of the population aged between 11 – 49 are HIV positive, the average years of schooling is 3.5 years, adult literacy rate stands at 56%, and 62.8 % of the population live in extreme poverty, that is, below 1.25$ a day. Moreover, the per capita GNP at Purchasing Power Parity has fallen consistently since 1980, from 963 $ to 722 $ in 2012.

The CAR has around 4.5 million people, of which 39% live in urban areas, with the rest scattered over a vast territory, making the implementation of development and humanitarian projects difficult. Moreover, the country is divided into more than eighty ethnic groups, each having its own language. This ethnic variety is complicated further by different religious affiliations:  50% are Christians, roughly half Catholics and half Protestants, 15% are Muslims, while 35 % maintain indigenous beliefs.

The political heritage of the CAR is no less depressing than its socio-economic situation. Previously known as the region of Oubangui-Chari under French rule, it became an autonomous region in 1958 and independent under its present name on 13 August 1960. Its first President, David Dacko, soon eliminated his rivals and established a one-party state in 1962. His rule came to an end on 31 December 1965, following the Saint-Sylvestre coup led by General Jean Bedel Bokassa.  Bokassa immediately suspended the Constitution and dissolved the National Assembly, and soon his grip on the country was complete.  He declared himself Emperor in 1976.

Despots who regard their country's resources as their private property, and who retain power by violence and patronage, inevitably risk being replaced themselves by brute force. President/Emperor Bokassa was overthrown by a French coup in 1979, which restored David Dacko, who was in turn overthrown by a coup led by General Andre Kolingba on 1 September 1981.

Successor despots generally leave the same way they arrive - ousted by rebellion and abandoned by the security forces amid widespread discontent. General Kolingba was thus followed by Ange-Felix Patasse in 1993, who was overthrown by his former Chief of Staff, Francois Bozize, in 2003, himself forced to leave the country by the Seleka (a coalition of rebel groups) coup of 24 March 2013.

The CAR is not the only African country victim of this predictable pattern of despotic succession. Since their independence in the 1960s fourteen African states went through a succession of coups, and more than sixty per cent of Africa's rulers left office for exile, prison or an early grave.

The reasons for the current spiral of violence and rapid disintegration of the CAR go beyond its endemic syndrome of corrupt, repressive and incompetent political leadership, causing widespread discontent and provoking armed rebellion. This time the CAR is sliding into an unprecedented sectarian and religious conflict. The Christian majority and the Muslim minority have lived in relative harmony until the March 2013 coup when Seleka  leader, Michel Djotodia seized power and became the first Muslim President. The disbanded Seleka Muslims, coming mostly from the north of the country, went on a killing spree, accusing the mainly Christian supporters of the former President of the summary execution of many of their comrades. In response a Christian self-defence militia, called anti-balaka (anti-machete) is confronting the Muslim raiders. So far some 460,000 people have fled their homes, more than a third of the population needs food, and several hundreds have been killed in the last two weeks.

Moreover, the geographic position of the CAR is not conducive to political and economic stability. It is a landlocked country surrounded by porous frontiers and frozen regional conflicts, such as that in Darfur and that between  Sudan and South Sudan on its eastern border. On its south is the Democratic Republic of Congo, a country plagued by civil war and ethnic violence. On its west and south west are Cameroon and Congo Brazzaville, which provide land route openings abounding in the violent trafficking of timber and diamonds. Militias from Chad, in the north, have played a destabilizing role in the CAR.  Some sources estimate that a substantial number of Seleka's fighters come from Chad or have been trained there.

It is not quite right to say that the CAR has been a forgotten country. There has been a long international presence and sizeable foreign development finance. France has maintained an almost continuous military presence since the CAR’s  independence.  United States army personnel arrived in 2011 in an effort to rid Central Africa of the atrocities committed by the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) of  Joseph Kony. South Africa has a bilateral military cooperation programme with the CAR and 13 of its soldiers were killed during the March 2013 raid on Bangui. The Economic Community of Central African States (ECCAS) has maintained since 2008, a peacekeeping force of 2,500 troops, known as MICOPAX.

All this has not been enough to stop the cycle of violence and restore state authority. On 5 December 2013, following the recent escalation of killings, the UNSC approved the deployment of an African-led International Support Mission (MISCA) which will be led by the African Union, with strong French support, and financed by the European Union. It will be a robust mission consisting of 6000 African Union and 1600 French troops, intended to scare trouble makers into submission. A substantial number of French troops have already deployed.

These military peacekeeping measures are to be supported by further development assistance aimed at kick-starting socio-economic recovery in the context of a comprehensive state and peace building agenda.

Probably, the robust and rapid intervention by the international community will succeed in stabilising the CAR for the short term. However, considering the long standing and complex nature of the conflict, this tragedy is likely to repeat itself unless the CAR's political leaders and army generals genuinely decide to forgo their personal ambitions and greed.

Tarcisio Zammit is a former Ambassador to Belgium and a former Representative of Malta to the EU’s Political and Security Committee.