This is only an interim comment, given we do not even know, at the moment of writing, the final first count of the European Parliament election, let alone the final assignment of EP seats (pleasures yet to come).
There is a rush of psephologists out to get in their comment first when things are not clear, when a proper analysis of votes has yet to be made.
The numbers speak for themselves, yet then numbers are terribly ambiguous. A case could be made, for instance, to show that it is far from certain, as the PN leader tried to say yesterday, that all those who did not vote are PN voters. On the contrary, the word in the counting hall, from both PN and PL agents, was that there are a number of core PL voters who did not turn up.
If that is the case, then it means that there were many who voted PN last year and who switched their votes on Saturday.
We will now see who gets the coveted sixth seat, whether it goes to PN, as Dr Busuttil himself has been saying all along, or whether those who voted Norman Lowell etc proceeded to switch to PL with their preferences. Or even the Alternattiva second preferences.
Elsewhere, people are analysing the votes as to whether they are Europhile or eurosceptic. Here, the issue essentially regards what the people feel about the two major parties.
It is clear, for instance, that this result is a tremendous success for Dr Muscat from a grateful electorate which has seen that Dr Muscat delivers what he promised.
Dr Muscat himself must have sensed that success could breed the next failure when he warned his followers to avoid complacency or the arrogance of the winners – not that his words were heard in the cacophony of carcades. In a way, it is 1976 again.
It is perhaps a footnote in yesterday’s events but when the country (or the interested part of it) was waiting for Dr Busuttil on NET, the programme there was about faldettas.
The fact is Dr Busuttil has not delivered and the country punished him for this. The party he leads is still the old fuddy-daddy party he inherited from his predecessor (hence the faldetta). The people who were responsible for the terrible defeat the party suffered in 2013 are mostly still there and they have taken Dr Busuttil as their hostage.
Twice he was asked whether he saw the result as an invitation to resign and twice Dr Busuttil fudged the answer, lamely coming up with “We will stay here in the interests of the PN” It may well be the interests of the party, sorry the country, may mean he steps aside. Nor did he state with a modicum of humility he shoulders the responsibility for the defeat, as his predecessor did.
The fact nevertheless is that the PN core, as registered in Saturday’s vote, is probably the hard core of the party, the real “Suldatital-azzar” as Dom Mintoff called his in 1962. That is never enough to win elections but given the cyclicality of Maltese politics the main thing is to prepare for eventual government with the right policies, and the right people to implement them.
The past year, for Dr Busuttil, must be considered a wasted year and the remaining three and a half years before the general election may be too short for a real turnaround.
But Dr Busuttil has an option. Should the third seat go to the PN he can only lead his party if he puts his foot down. He has a manual to follow if he chooses to read Eddie Fenech Adami’s autobiography. There is no room for compromise. If he is the leader then his parliamentary group needs to follow him. Those who want to stick to the past can pack and leave.
On the other hand, Dr Muscat needs to ask the mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all. His astounding victory came at a price from taxpayer’s money. It is time he too stamped his feet and started saying no to people who expect the unacceptable. Dr Muscat needs to work hard on the meritocracy issue even if it could cost him some of the thousands of votes.