As the country, vast swathes of it judging by the social media content this week, takes to pouring buckets of ice water over their heads – with most people apparently not even knowing the stunt is about more, much more, than a simple joke for their Facebook friends – other parts of the world very close to us are literally in flames.

Turmoil in Libya is reaching a tipping point, hostilities in Israel and Palestine are once again increasing, ISIS in Iraq and Syria is pursuing its deadly campaign against minorities as it attempts to carve out its own Islamist caliphate and Russia’s incursions in Ukraine threaten to destabilise that region of the world as well.

But here in Malta, ensconced as we are in our protective bubble of safety, most hardly give a second thought to such proceedings other than to empathise briefly with the victims of these ongoing, horrific tragedies.

But, according to Malta’s foreign affairs minister, Malta’s protective bubble could, one fine day, be burst and the country stands a real risk of feeling the bite of today’s geopolitical turmoil.

Syrians and Iraqis are fleeing ISIS militants in their countries in their thousands, on top of the thousands of other Syrians that have fled and are still fleeing the brutal iron fist of Bashar Assad. Libya is also on the tipping point, driving thousands of sub Saharan migrants to leave the country at all costs and to set sail for Europe. If matters degenerate further, Malta could also be looking at an influx of Libyan refugees leaving their country with little more than the clothes on their backs.

Back in 2011, Malta had faced a similar prospective threat, when southern European politicians warned of potentially up to 300,000 people fleeing northward from Libya in ‘migrant’ boats toward safety in Europe. Frontex and Europol had also expressed similar concerns at the time. Europol in particular had warned at the time that extremist terrorists could be seeking entry into Europe under cover of that migrant influx to carry out attacks on European soil.

While hostilities in Libya are nowhere near what they were at the height of the revolution against former dictator Muammar Gaddafi, fighting is intense, air raids are ongoing with two having been carried out, apparently by militias, this very week, and the powder keg situation in Libya threatens to escalate uncontrollably.

Another concern flagged by the minister was the fact that ISIS extremist militants could be seeking to work their way into Libya and right into the vacuum created by the hostilities in the country. According to the minister, ISIS has had North Africa on its cards and it is aiming to establish a caliphate across other countries such as those of the Maghreb.

In fact, in Libya’s fellow Maghreb state of Morocco, two suspected militants were arrested on Friday after seeking to join the Islamic State. The country is in a heightened state of alert over fears of a terrorist attack. According to the Moroccan authorities, the men arrested had contacts with foreign extremists and were seeking to train in IS camps before returning to Morocco to carry out attacks.

In July, the Moroccan government announced a heightened state of alert over fears of a terrorist attack, especially from Moroccans fighting abroad, and for the past week anti-aircraft missile batteries have been seen around the airports of Casablanca, Tangiers, Marrakech and oil refineries and power plants.

The Algerian military also said that it has mobilised additional resources on the borders to confront the heightened terrorist threat coming from neighbouring Libya.

Both the Algerian and the Moroccan media have singled out the threat from militants linked either to al-Qaeda’s North African branch (AQIM – al Qaeda in the Maghreb) or to IS in Libya, which is convulsed with battles between Islamists and other militias, speculating that extremists will use it as a launching pad for attacks on other North African countries.

“There have been dangerous developments characterised by increasing acts of violence and the worrisome deterioration of the security situation on our eastern frontiers,” said an editorial on Friday in the Algerian army’s magazine, Al-Jaish. “We have mobilised all forces to confront any attempts to infiltrate our borders and confront the various threats, especially the terrorist one.”

If the Moroccans and Algerians are so concerned about terrorist threats reaching them from Libya, one can understandably be concerned that such a threat also faces Malta, Libya’s other neighbour and an EU member state, as a potential target or as a transit country through which extremists could reach mainland Europe.

As such, the minister’s warnings are well founded and given that, thankfully, Malta will presumably not be caught unprepared should such an eventuality materialise.

Malta is indeed facing some real risks, and although they are somewhat low at the moment, the risk factor could increase exponentially at any given moment given the fluidity of the situation in Libya.